TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,072

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,724 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes34c1,529$514 inWon+$1,015.285228.8%15 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2362…2ec5backed No6c822.8$46 inLost-$46.2740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes20c794.39$160 inWon+$634.3311932.8%39 W · 80 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d8…be73backed Yes10c349.99$35 inWon+$314.993327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes19c325.34$62 inWon+$263.3276821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes11c272.83$30 inWon+$243.2816945%76 W · 93 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No5c214.54$12 inLost-$11.5138848.5%188 W · 200 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No70c209.98$147 inLost-$147.185942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No23c172.83$40 inLost-$40.3818949.2%93 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes12c150$18 inWon+$1327334.2%25 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No61c126.78$78 inLost-$77.6410151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No78c123$95 inLost-$95.4119053.7%102 W · 88 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No62c102.27$63 inLost-$63.4321732.3%70 W · 147 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No33c100$33 inLost-$33.22763%17 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbba…e651backed No12c100$12 inLost-$11.993732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b83…008bbacked No15c98.79$15 inLost-$14.615714%8 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26bc…6b72backed Yes21c97.23$20 inWon+$77.23850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+74.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes59c93.83$56 inWon+$38.2731743.2%137 W · 180 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No14c77.36$11 inLost-$11.0912216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No50c75.74$38 inLost-$37.5416750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No14c75.08$10 inLost-$10.3939518.7%74 W · 321 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xeffd…5aa6backed No62c65.92$41 inLost-$40.689924.2%24 W · 75 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f6…d1d3backed No79c18.93$15 inLost-$14.994257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.