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Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,826
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,652

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,826 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes1c17,282$150 inLost-$150.481,06110.7%113 W · 948 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x021e…1e56backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes23c485.42$110 inLost-$109.8447023.4%110 W · 360 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeffd…5aa6backed Yes19c449.6$87 inLost-$87.3710822.2%24 W · 84 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-34.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x823b…2274backed Yes14c295.76$40 inLost-$401127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed No76c195.08$148 inWon+$46.8365823.3%153 W · 505 L+1.8wins0.00per pick23cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes27c123.66$34 inLost-$33.6415748.4%76 W · 81 L+15.5wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No67c110.34$74 inWon+$36.3535470.6%250 W · 104 L+24.7wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+11%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xda00…61b4backed Yes16c100$16 inLost-$162133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed Yes26c97.31$25 inLost-$25.312951.9%67 W · 62 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7155…eaf8backed Yes50c92.07$46 inLost-$46425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No74c60$45 inWon+$15.3820253.5%108 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…3a8bbacked Yes44c43$19 inLost-$18.95416.7%9 W · 45 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No78c42.78$33 inWon+$9.5821348.4%103 W · 110 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c32.21$24 inWon+$7.9782435.8%295 W · 529 L-38.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No76c30$23 inWon+$7.1815175.5%114 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c27$21 inWon+$5.6725655.9%143 W · 113 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No62c27$17 inWon+$10.1822562.7%141 W · 84 L+24.0wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+31.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No76c23.62$18 inWon+$5.783548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No80c20.01$16 inWon+$4.022962.1%18 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No72c20$14 inWon+$5.665339.6%21 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-38.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e73…c4c2backed No76c20$15 inWon+$4.821861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5705…4652backed No76c20$15 inWon+$4.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-31.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed No58c20$12 inWon+$8.44742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No75c20$15 inWon+$54757.4%27 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-9.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.