TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$174,315,688
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$99,305,433

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,315,688 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 27,086 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa7b7…962ebacked Yes10c12,354,112$1,230,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230,047.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x620d…c67fbacked Yes19c5,439,471$1,011,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011,259.91136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d83…be92backed Yes19c3,206,096$599,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599,711.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes25c2,091,145$514,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514,632.082,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes9c2,009,114$170,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170,819.237839.7%31 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ac…b964backed Yes26c1,709,198$449,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449,001.615749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba7…f56bbacked Yes34c1,553,468$530,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530,952.32616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes15c1,528,519$230,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230,850.658,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes20c1,434,096$284,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284,903.8321444.4%95 W · 119 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes7c1,309,265$87,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,729.213122.1%29 W · 102 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Yes17c1,285,736$216,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216,258.9133538.2%128 W · 207 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a7…3362backed Yes20c1,246,647$254,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254,827.676038.3%23 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6e…18d9backed Yes18c1,180,304$207,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207,195.581010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-37.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bab3backed Yes41c1,019,293$419,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419,032.1822348.4%108 W · 115 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes28c896,430$251,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,436.347924.1%19 W · 60 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Yes28c789,278$224,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224,342.255322.6%12 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe549…2d54backed Yes9c784,524$67,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,469.115552.3%81 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes28c732,484$202,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,349.1379231.1%246 W · 546 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes16c706,264$115,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115,310.592714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1681…b1c7backed Yes9c703,333$59,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,998.477740.3%31 W · 46 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd355…f69cbacked Yes16c701,511$110,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110,994.58147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Yes20c618,906$121,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,264.2813811.6%16 W · 122 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c78…77f1backed No79c610,230$481,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128,933.846048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd49f…4507backed Yes42c568,720$240,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240,00012210.7%13 W · 109 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes9c566,151$48,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,706.714537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Yes26c559,509$144,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144,161.33540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18d8…7e2ebacked Yes41c542,533$224,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224,636.08812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-81.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa107…b7bdbacked Yes15c541,966$79,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,386.571241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe94…8a3dbacked Yes36c535,952$193,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193,394.252147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Yes9c532,724$45,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,736.7232029.4%94 W · 226 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf742…e039backed Yes16c525,039$85,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85,843.9226447.7%126 W · 138 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a7…504ebacked Yes11c458,000$51,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,961.941241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ec…d069backed Yes15c454,294$67,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,641.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+105.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked Yes20c446,700$88,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,50020633%68 W · 138 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629a…6f53backed Yes19c441,318$84,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,740.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick32cpaid+78.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d20…a165backed No59c438,510$258,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180,188.942661.5%16 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+37.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6db5…7b87backed Yes18c430,995$78,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,723.34137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02fa…04d4backed Yes10c430,268$42,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,298.831926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed Yes41c424,598$172,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172,186.53450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ee…cc59backed Yes13c423,331$56,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,018.283652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b2c…d7e6backed Yes10c410,000$39,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,764.412045%9 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+48.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes13c408,955$54,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,672.754233.3%14 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes2c400,385$7,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,297.462714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-73.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7efe…2e32backed Yes15c400,126$61,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,244.741464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ad7…ae48backed Yes20c400,000$80,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,6004355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d4f…e5f3backed No59c388,530$228,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160,483.131952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6501…1220backed Yes16c380,213$59,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,8414667.4%31 W · 15 L+9.3wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+41.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x000c…bcf3backed Yes20c376,004$74,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,395.0229916.7%50 W · 249 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed Yes20c366,915$71,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,657.673941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes30c358,467$107,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107,689.0238734.4%133 W · 254 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfffa…864bbacked Yes9c350,232$30,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,311.681631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde7c…c933backed Yes17c344,246$58,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,980.195234.6%18 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81bc…fcfabacked Yes10c343,630$33,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,283.254535.6%16 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d5…fba3backed Yes11c343,121$37,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,754.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+237.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe1c…436cbacked Yes18c341,707$61,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,996.93818.4%7 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb00a…77f1backed Yes9c340,654$29,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,636.941136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc706…76c5backed Yes9c336,978$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9032…8717backed Yes12c331,740$38,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,709.964042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04c0…4f3dbacked Yes13c331,527$44,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,095.967632.9%25 W · 51 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Yes14c327,791$46,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,984.641529.9%15 W · 137 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e15…cfdbbacked Yes9c322,793$28,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,190.7460%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed No72c304,519$218,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,320.2314349.7%71 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc1b…9d59backed Yes13c300,000$38,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,351.025967.8%40 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ca5…fd56backed Yes30c300,000$88,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,499.952222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked No58c299,999$173,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126,599.6842345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes9c294,397$27,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,965.4118545.9%85 W · 100 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Yes13c290,300$38,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,917.2310457.7%60 W · 44 L+10.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbfe5…f63dbacked Yes19c287,676$55,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,038.082317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ff…ba79backed Yes9c286,990$24,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,714.88147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba8…cdb3backed Yes20c279,131$54,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,709.645655.4%31 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+37%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8d8…bcc9backed Yes14c275,595$38,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,578.79911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-62.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b6f…bdfdbacked Yes16c273,162$44,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,840.432119%4 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59ab…1488backed Yes15c258,896$38,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,596.53850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Yes29c258,735$75,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,361.487150.7%36 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes16c255,987$41,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,038.412365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick54cpaid0%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc88e…f3e1backed Yes16c254,980$39,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,526.487114.1%10 W · 61 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a79…6296backed Yes12c254,639$31,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,267.31944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8981…247abacked Yes12c242,220$28,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,581.94650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fdb…28c6backed Yes8c239,657$20,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,005.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce80…9a82backed Yes21c238,030$49,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,132.243951.3%20 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+10.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd604…cb5fbacked No77c233,983$180,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,715.3933555.5%186 W · 149 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes29c233,178$67,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,083.015119.6%10 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-35.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xccc1…889dbacked Yes9c232,054$20,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,219.44147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f0…3d5ebacked Yes11c231,183$24,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,745.516622.7%15 W · 51 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37f4…f1d4backed Yes26c227,126$57,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,959.254141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5357…3a0dbacked Yes9c221,292$19,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,916.27119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9180…f0dabacked Yes44c221,131$96,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,963.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+316.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ac…d715backed Yes7c220,050$14,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,730.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes10c217,078$21,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,075.884030%12 W · 28 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No73c210,515$154,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,177.78666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28ba…b673backed Yes13c208,362$28,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,126.881741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…de96backed Yes10c206,774$20,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,002.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0121…f722backed Yes13c206,021$27,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,206.9523644.9%106 W · 130 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Yes41c205,974$84,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,642.751233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5f6…aba9backed Yes44c204,155$88,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,8882626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc931…c416backed Yes19c203,481$38,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,753.341315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b0…a1b9backed Yes15c203,103$30,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,252.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee3e…ebb5backed Yes8c202,600$17,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,091.5137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e38…523bbacked Yes42c200,100$84,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,041.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed Yes15c200,000$30,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,136.617840.4%72 W · 106 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 50 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.