TailMyPicks
Market

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,666,273
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,123,794

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,666,273 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 844 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca28…4e91backed Yes2c424,803$9,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,423.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes2c375,886$5,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,800.9326330%79 W · 184 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes2c293,507$5,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,661.12156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54e4…70b0backed Yes2c239,739$4,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,836.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Yes2c197,244$4,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,069.8750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfedc…6398backed Yes2c133,893$2,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,714.31260%0 W · 26 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f50…8341backed Yes2c115,000$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,37040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cdb…9d70backed Yes2c104,500$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,194.550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc612…7d6dbacked Yes2c89,396$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.3580%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x328a…30c9backed Yes2c85,500$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed Yes2c85,086$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,701.7280%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63ed…92bebacked Yes2c80,376$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,675.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes2c70,540$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.672313%3 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x356f…639fbacked Yes0c67,795$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.791233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-31.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd399…3f46backed Yes2c66,450$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.959723.7%23 W · 74 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes2c61,413$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.74234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ee…7a99backed Yes2c60,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9207945.6%36 W · 43 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed Yes2c57,836$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b4d…20cfbacked Yes2c57,404$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.16140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…7be9backed Yes2c55,533$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.439516.8%16 W · 79 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc810…512fbacked Yes2c52,956$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea8…47aabacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504548.9%22 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcdb6…9452backed Yes3c50,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59d6…62c8backed Yes2c49,292$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e0…2a87backed Yes2c45,249$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x561f…a932backed Yes2c43,799$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.77425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9612…205abacked Yes3c40,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000205%1 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick15cpaid-61.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Yes2c35,204$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.67425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2260…ad28backed Yes2c34,511$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.22520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06b0…afd6backed Yes2c33,800$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3285…05aebacked Yes2c32,663$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.21185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-65.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes2c30,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480352.9%1 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-80.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes2c30,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56074447.8%356 W · 388 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb2…3424backed Yes2c26,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500293.4%1 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-77.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Yes2c25,698$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.3210457.7%60 W · 44 L+10.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes2c25,695$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.27911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-84.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa63e…a9b3backed Yes2c25,318$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34c5…4388backed Yes2c25,125$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes2c25,000$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42732629.1%95 W · 231 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes2c23,259$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.0418545.9%85 W · 100 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2afc…ecd9backed Yes2c22,231$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.6150%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7040…81fabacked Yes2c22,116$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.4214116.3%23 W · 118 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdba5…7fe9backed Yes2c22,000$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e1…314cbacked Yes2c21,000$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes2c20,849$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.56224.5%1 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-71.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb5…b536backed Yes2c20,766$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.0990%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c20,733$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.9355.7%2 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-70.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f48…6a8bbacked Yes2c20,247$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes2c20,100$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42250214.5%73 W · 429 L+2.3wins0.00per pick14cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x243c…2240backed Yes2c20,031$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.977429.7%22 W · 52 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd12…7e35backed Yes3c20,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cc…b75abacked Yes2c20,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…3438backed Yes2c20,000$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.99170%0 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes2c19,801$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.828932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ec5…2eaabacked Yes2c18,797$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes2c18,000$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.55014%7 W · 43 L-7.2wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-79.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xecdb…ccd0backed Yes2c17,838$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.13023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d2…b69fbacked Yes2c15,470$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.34150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes2c15,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-59%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4207…b81bbacked Yes2c15,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2802814.3%4 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-72.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735f…0e5bbacked Yes2c13,889$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503713.5%5 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-76%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x230b…7409backed Yes2c13,700$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.12114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c13,579$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.3365.6%2 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9653…a9f5backed Yes2c13,288$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebad…9c03backed Yes2c13,050$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c12,834$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.468,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69eb…8f06backed Yes2c12,593$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde48…30e7backed Yes2c12,454$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.2130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e0f…9304backed Yes3c12,238$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.594617.4%8 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-47.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Yes2c12,238$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25722846.9%107 W · 121 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48bb…9feabacked Yes3c11,963$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick5cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes3c11,680$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.57812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-83.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61d7…6c5bbacked Yes2c11,606$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc0d…4212backed Yes2c11,000$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc1a…b35cbacked Yes2c10,980$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fda…01d5backed Yes2c10,954$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a72…9be0backed Yes2c10,934$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b19…978cbacked Yes2c10,579$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff67…a1c9backed Yes2c10,526$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005954.2%32 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x727f…bdc6backed Yes2c10,526$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-82.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7aca…ef71backed Yes2c10,526$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f42…205bbacked Yes2c10,317$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes2c10,263$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20046223.2%107 W · 355 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafca…80f8backed Yes3c10,190$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34e7…8821backed Yes2c10,110$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2324…2b86backed Yes2c10,000$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.66911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3537…56eabacked Yes2c10,000$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes2c10,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21013531.9%43 W · 92 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-23.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes2c10,000$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19822650.9%115 W · 111 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes2c10,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190382.6%1 W · 37 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-83.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6c…8fe6backed Yes2c10,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb86d…3e71backed Yes2c10,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee3c…e648backed Yes2c10,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Yes2c10,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2970…e1c9backed Yes2c10,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22014351.7%74 W · 69 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7d8…2374backed Yes2c10,000$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19410042%42 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Yes2c10,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde59…451fbacked Yes2c10,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-82.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 50 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.