TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2d27…76d8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
1,470
Categories scored
32
Categories below 50
20

Best Category: Bundesliga, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Bundesliga at 59 out of 100; worst Boxing at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT3614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 361 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.48
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.22
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.44
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.22
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.2
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.6
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.95
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.92
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.83
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.22
Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.44
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.86
Will Chung Jin-suk win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.01
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$644Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$171.31
Will Kang Seung-kyu win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.01
Will Moon Jin-seok win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.01
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.01
Will Lee Kwang-jae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.7
Will Sung Il-jong win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.98
Will Reform Party (RP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.25
Showing 25 of 361 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 197 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$756Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+1,517.7%+$11,466.45
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.01
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$555Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$555.49
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,360Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,359.87
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.44
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$175
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$245.16
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,047Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,047.33
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$427.23
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$605Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$605
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.82
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$746Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$746.46
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.65
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$413.86
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$390
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$725Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$725.37
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.15
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$999Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$999.17
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,087Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,086.76
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$861Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$860.75
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$389.41
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$920Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$919.99
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11,453Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$11,453.38
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12,378Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$12,377.7
Showing 25 of 197 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 176 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$895Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$894.77
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+7,173.9%+$11,441.71
Will Cameron Ward win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$11.78
Will CeeDee Lamb win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$12.4
Will the Rams win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$18.78
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$438Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$437.64
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$351.14
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$607Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$607.19
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$589Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$588.68
Will the 49ers win the 2026 NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$246.38
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$844Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$843.57
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20.24
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$2,826Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$2,825.61
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$474Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$474.14
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$997Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$997.34
Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$19.82
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$3,467Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$3,466.62
Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$219.99
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$297.84
Will the Packers win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$48.31
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$613Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$613.12
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,325Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$1,325.1
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$333.2
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$260.67
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$2,702Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$2,701.52
Showing 25 of 176 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT12921.7%28 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 129 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,084Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,084.04
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,186Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+793.8%+$9,416.55
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.43
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.89
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.07
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$750
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.81
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.09
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$733Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$733.15
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$243.68
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$268.69
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.61
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$449Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$449.43
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.39
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$58.01
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$46
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$68.98
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$223.65
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$39.92
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$418Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$417.86
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$290.19
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$240.78
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$178.86
Showing 25 of 129 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT9917.2%17 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 99 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$840Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$840
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$3,382Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$9,143.26
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$5,859Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,859.02
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.14
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.05
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$507Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$507.17
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$543Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$543.04
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$434.51
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$440.32
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$333.91
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$434.51
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$525.31
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$205.38
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$570Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$569.95
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$553Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$553.5
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$399.3
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$417Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$417.27
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$562Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$562.32
Will Chelsea vs. Liverpool end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$272.04
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$840Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$840
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$617Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$1,312
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$6,810Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+61.5%+$4,189.98
Will Arsenal vs. West Ham end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,389Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,389.31
Will Manchester United vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Showing 25 of 99 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST6021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 60 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$397.35
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,875Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,875.31
Will Trump cut corporate taxes in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.16
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$941Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$941
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$684Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+25.8%+$176.31
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+426.3%+$810
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$260
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$634Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$634.28
Elon out of Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$93
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,056Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+109.7%+$2,254.79
US-China trade deal before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$3,046Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+117.7%+$3,586.03
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$177.71
Will TikTok be banned again before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,145
TikTok sale announced before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$483Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$483
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.5
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$5,745Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,744.57
Will Trump increase tariffs on China before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$628.99
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$604Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$603.78
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$508Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+209.7%+$1,065.02
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+386.5%+$357.49
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$764Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$764
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,561Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$1,560.89
Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$990Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$989.94
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$327.27
Showing 25 of 60 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 52 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$725Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37.9%+$275
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$79
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$35.57
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$28.5
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$413Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$413.08
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$138
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+471.4%+$1,650
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$190
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.12
Will the ECB announce an increase at the October meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$256.64
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$374Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$373.68
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$121.41
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,140
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$993Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$992.88
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$354Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$353.91
Will the ECB announce an increase at the September meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$143.98
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,557Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,556.73
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,912Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,911.79
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$8,862Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,861.62
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$5,792Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,791.99
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11,520Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$11,519.87
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10,146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$10,145.9
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,864Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,863.95
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$6,385Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,384.91
Showing 25 of 52 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-78.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$763Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$763.19
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$434.46
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$455.01
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$120.44
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$518Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$518.36
Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$282.41
Will "Wicked" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$205
Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$110.86
Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$34.15
Will "Nickel Boys" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$262.29
Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$35.46
Will "The Substance" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$57.09
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+316.7%+$590.52
Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$107.79
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$513Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+210%+$1,077.9
Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$160.99
Will James Mangold win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "A Complete Unknown"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$23.56
Will Jacques Audiard win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Emilia Pérez"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will "The Girl with the Needle" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$26.59
Will "I Am Ready, Warden" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$31.46
Will Zoe Saldaña win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$167.16
Will "Memoir of a Snail" win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$350
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT352.9%1 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-80.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$5,668Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,668.11
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$2,460Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+586.5%+$14,428.03
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$5,321Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,321.49
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$2,613Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,612.85
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$690Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$690.16
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.67
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$550
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$3,932Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,931.73
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.26
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$2,287Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,287.03
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$322Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$322.22
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$279
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$507Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$507.23
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$651Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$650.66
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$517Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$516.52
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.58
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$950Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$950
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,077Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,077.16
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$422.22
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.67
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2025, EST352.9%1 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$160
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$363Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$362.75
F1 season canceled or other team wins?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.67
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.35
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$291.04
Will Alpine be the 2025 Constructors Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$256.43
Will Sauber be the 2025 Constructors Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$240.1
Will Haas be the 2025 Constructors Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.89
Will Racing Bulls be the 2025 Constructors Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$246.06
Will Williams be the 2025 Constructors Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$84.85
Will Aston Martin be the 2025 Constructors Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$271.34
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$804Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$803.99
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$302.67
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$881Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$881.29
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$958Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$958.46
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$713Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$713.26
Will Yuki Tsunoda be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$662Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$661.74
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$786Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$785.92
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$819Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$819.43
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$811Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$811.33
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,170Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,169.73
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$703Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$702.9
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$806Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$806.45
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$757Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$757.21
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,009Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,008.68
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-84%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$860Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$860
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.85
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.23
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.04
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.1
Will Osasuna win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.91
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.55
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$51.68
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$147.81
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$93.08
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$117.77
Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55.61
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$47.48
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$87.56
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$96.05
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$51.54
Will Mallorca vs. Alaves end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$74.54
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$4,465Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT+242.5%+$10,827.73
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-09-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$519Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$519.18
Will another team win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$2,139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,139.3
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$5,975Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,974.59
Will Barcelona win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18,773Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+69.2%+$12,996.02
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$188.88
Will Villarreal CF win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,063Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,063.21
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,165Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,165.24
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT3116.1%5 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-65.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.96
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.73
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$747Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$746.91
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$482Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$482.46
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$566Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$565.81
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$331.07
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$596Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$596.47
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$201.36
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$92.12
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$546Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$546.09
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$290
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$282.8
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$467Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$466.61
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$404Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$403.87
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$439Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$439.27
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,492Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,491.78
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$499.27
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$608Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$608.2
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,070Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,069.53
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$888Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$887.88
Flames vs. Panthersbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$270
Sweden vs. USAbacked Sweden · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$956Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+209.6%+$2,003.31
Blue Jackets vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$640Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$639.95
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 2, 2025, EDT2733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.89
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.18
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$49
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.64
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.9
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$154.08
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$142.58
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$157.38
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 American League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.67
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.45
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$149.36
Athletics vs. Nationalsbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$4,351Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,351.25
Twins vs. Tigersbacked Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$3,136Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+148.1%+$4,645.51
Guardians vs. Metsbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$381Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+157.9%+$601.14
Astros vs. Marlinsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,250Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,250.33
Braves vs. Redsbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,320Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,320
Braves vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$867Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$867.33
Rays vs. Yankeesbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,990Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,990
Blue Jays vs. Oriolesbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,600
Blue Jays vs. Oriolesbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$2,300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$2,700
Blue Jays vs. Oriolesbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,133Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$2,310.88
Orioles vs. Guardiansbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,400Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$2,599.99
Angels vs. Metsbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$88.39
Reds vs. Nationalsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,538Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$1,309.92
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST254%1 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-94.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dylan Raiola win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$11.1
Will Austin Simmons win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$10.7
Will Notre Dame win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$6,639Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+31.7%+$2,104.54
Will Ohio State win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$1,100
Will Quinn Ewers win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$66.86
Will Jalen Milroe win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$81.71
Will Nico Iamaleava win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$83.98
Will Miller Moss win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$86.23
Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$79.77
Will Will Howard win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$48.8
Will Riley Leonard win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$101.98
Will Carson Beck win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$79.97
Will Cam Ward win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$76.15
Will another player win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$96.49
Will Ryan Williams win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$48.76
Will Dylan Raiola win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$89.48
Will Dillon Gabriel win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$57.17
Will Drew Allar win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$78.15
Will Tetairoa McMillan win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$109.82
Will Garrett Nussmeier win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$89.19
Will Avery Johnson win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$146.7
Will Shedeur Sanders win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$24.25
Will Noah Fifita win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$114.75
Will Jackson Arnold win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$58.92
Will Florida State win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$60
All 25 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST220%0 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$437Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$436.94
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$301.78
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$201.76
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$110
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$140
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$109.9
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.94
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.07
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.33
DeepSeek R2 released before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.98
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.33
Will Meta have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$81.1
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.99
Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$132.59
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$101.09
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$116.6
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$16.23
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$84.92
Will StepFun have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$128.69
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$30.7
Will Meta have the top AI model on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$30.98
All 22 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 27, 2025, EDT224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-90.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.05
ATP Toronto – Rublev vs. Fritzbacked Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$363Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$363.44
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$5,047Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,046.86
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$5,033Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,033.33
Wimbledon Final – Alcaraz vs. Sinner backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,489Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+100%+$2,489.45
Wimbledon Final – Anisimova vs. Swiatekbacked Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$690Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$690
Will Cameron Norrie win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.11
Will Karen Khachanov win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.11
Will Grigor Dimitrov win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.11
Will Alex de Minaur win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$107.61
Will Andrey Rublev win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.22
Will Tommy Paul win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.22
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.76
Will Frances Tiafoe win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.33
Will Ugo Humbert win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.97
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.72
Will Denis Shapovalov win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.13
Will Matteo Berrettini win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.11
Will Holger Rune win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.28
Will Hubert Hurkacz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.22
Will Casper Ruud win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.33
Will Sebastian Korda win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.11
All 22 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2025, EDT1822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-46.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$5,820Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT+154.4%+$8,985.81
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$201.49
Florida vs. Houstonbacked Houston · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$5,317Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,316.99
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+98.7%+$166.09
Houston vs. Dukebacked Houston · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,330Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+242.2%+$5,642.88
Florida vs. Auburnbacked Florida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,965Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT+68.7%+$2,035.3
Will Oregon win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.49
Will Colorado State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.81
Will Baylor win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.44
Will UCLA win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.28
Will Drake win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.64
Will Oklahoma win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$84.79
Will Marquette win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.47
Will Lipscomb win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.02
Will Mississippi State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.46
Will UC San Diego win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.43
Will Georgia win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$94
Will Texas win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$88.97
All 18 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.03
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$253.23
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$498Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$498.01
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$320.93
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$482Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$482.11
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.96
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.41
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.55
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$193.98
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will 'Djesse Vol. 4' win Album of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$49.18
Will 'New Blue Sun' win Album of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$17.97
All 17 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sassuolo win the 2025–26 Serie A league?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.39
Will Udinese win the 2025–26 Serie A league?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$41.7
Will Parma win the 2025–26 Serie A league?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50.34
Will Cagliari win the 2025–26 Serie A league?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$56.9
Will Torino win the 2025–26 Serie A league?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$31.05
Will Cremonese win the 2025–26 Serie A league?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$18.98
Will Genoa win the 2025–26 Serie A league?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$39.55
Will Lecce win the 2025–26 Serie A league?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$27.64
Will Verona win the 2025–26 Serie A league?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$47.57
Will Pisa win the 2025–26 Serie A league?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$32.28
Will another team win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$388.41
Will Lazio win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will AS Roma win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$121.06
Will Fiorentina win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$76.28
Will AC Milan win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$179.49
Will Torino win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$664Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$664.35
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+62.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Turkey military clash in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,637Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,637.06
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$237.4
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,235Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+352.5%+$4,354.33
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$491Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+344%+$1,687.65
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$458Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$458
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$349.86
Israel military action against Iran in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.52
US military action against Iran in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,844Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,843.78
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+1,275%+$2,550
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$225
Israel military action against Iraq before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$698Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$698
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$15
All 14 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia invade Finland in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$109.51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,394Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,393.55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$2,958Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,958.43
Zelenskyy impeached before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$225.7
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$175.76
Nothing Ever Happens backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.4
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$401Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$401
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$54,317Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$54,317.31
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,246Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+62.6%+$780.25
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$849Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+148.5%+$1,260.18
Trump admin announces cutting Ukraine aid by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+82.3%+$260.82
All 11 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2025, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-81.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2backed Dubois · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$880Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$880
Will Fury beat Usyk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$5,661Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$5,661.14
Will Usyk vs. Fury have no official winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$2,210Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$2,210
Will Usyk beat Fury?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15,842Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+82.2%+$13,014.61
Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight rigged?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$796Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$796.05
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$38,592Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$38,591.62
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30,910Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$30,909.99
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$5,469Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$5,468.78
Will Mike Tyson knockout Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$520
Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$610Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$609.99
All 10 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$645Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+118%+$760.86
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$3,465Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,465.48
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,523Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+27.5%+$418.55
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$177
Will Rangers win on 2025-03-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$26.24
Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.93
Will Maccabi TLV win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$341Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST-100%-$341.13
Will Nice win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$14.5
Will Dynamo Kyiv win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$206.53
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$155.55
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$144.62
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$653Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$653.04
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$311.67
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,195Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$1,195
Will a candidate from another party win Arizona US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Will a candidate from another party win Texas US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Will a candidate from another party win Ohio US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$194.52
All 9 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-65.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jacoby vs. Lopesbacked Jacoby · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$30.05
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopesbacked Lopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$4,622Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,621.57
Jones vs. Miocicbacked Miocic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$334.97
Oliveira vs. Chandlerbacked Chandler · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$290
Ruffy vs. Llontopbacked Llontop · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$14.08
All 5 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Sep 27, 2025, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+148.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Chess — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,501Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$833.58
World Chess Championship 2024 Winnerbacked Ding · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11,375Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$11,375.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$225
China bans US films in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$174
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Team Liquid win LoL Worlds 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$9,180Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$9,180.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in April 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.