Serie A · resolved market
Will AC Milan win the Serie A?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfafea05c48721f477c0adfa5b5e6cd38387f8425b96f2f53e97d48e7ceedd0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,214,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,132,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,214,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 70,149$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.49 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 65,685$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 0c | 41,304$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 37,209$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 30,626$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 21,000$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,291$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb54…8ca9backed Yes | 0c | 14,086$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde5f…8947backed Yes | 0c | 13,557$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c44…22ccbacked Yes | 1c | 13,026$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b29…d0a8backed Yes | 1c | 11,833$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 3c | 11,106$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.51 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…e62abacked Yes | 1c | 11,024$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…4864backed Yes | 1c | 9,580$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf5…6db3backed Yes | 1c | 8,984$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…eaa9backed Yes | 1c | 7,909$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 1c | 7,033$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…5befbacked Yes | 1c | 6,050$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6e…bab5backed Yes | 1c | 5,933$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbe…d7e1backed Yes | 0c | 5,700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…fe89backed Yes | 11c | 5,617$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc3…bc50backed Yes | 0c | 5,258$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4009…251dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,078$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…c0cebacked Yes | 0c | 5,020$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb3…df98backed Yes | 0c | 4,830$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 3,874$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…9ddebacked Yes | 1c | 3,238$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…61c8backed Yes | 0c | 2,688$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1439…5051backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…a5e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,011$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 3c | 965$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…69fbbacked Yes | 2c | 922.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 893.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 53c | 670.52$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf927…73babacked Yes | 4c | 631.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb943…3161backed Yes | 4c | 519.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…0e5bbacked Yes | 4c | 468.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 383.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…35ebbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…94b1backed Yes | 4c | 250.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ff…dbcdbacked Yes | 8c | 243.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 60c | 140$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Milan win the Serie A?this page
- Will AS Roma win the Serie A?No won
- Will Atalanta win the Serie A?No won
- Will Fiorentina win the Serie A?No won
- Will Inter Milan win the Serie A?No won
- Will Juventus win the Serie A?No won
- Will Lazio win the Serie A?No won
- Will Napoli win the Serie A?Yes won
- Will Torino win the Serie A?No won
- Will another team win the Serie A?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.