Serie A · resolved market
Will Lazio win the Serie A?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2f7e89f40398eaee7f1eb271de7cb32ff32377122c9272f41115a77f91b24c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,645,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,062,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,645,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 85,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 0c | 76,330$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.46 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 0c | 49,017$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 44,980$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 30,440$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 1c | 15,736$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 1c | 14,670$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.92 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 13,900$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 1c | 10,459$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 8,140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879f…6306backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 1c | 3,854$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 3,279$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…c7d6backed Yes | 1c | 3,189$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…39ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,667$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,503$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8de…8526backed Yes | 1c | 2,083$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…79d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,938$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 1,814$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 3c | 1,772$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4707…7e5bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,591$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 3c | 1,278$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 1,278$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 7c | 1,055$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 2c | 750$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 725.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e9…fc53backed Yes | 3c | 317.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lazio win the Serie A?this page
- Will AC Milan win the Serie A?No won
- Will AS Roma win the Serie A?No won
- Will Atalanta win the Serie A?No won
- Will Fiorentina win the Serie A?No won
- Will Inter Milan win the Serie A?No won
- Will Juventus win the Serie A?No won
- Will Napoli win the Serie A?Yes won
- Will Torino win the Serie A?No won
- Will another team win the Serie A?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.