TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe077…8ee3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
541
Categories scored
39
Categories below 50
25

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 57 out of 100; worst World Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Sep 5, 2025, EDT749.5%7 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 74 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vikings trade JJ McCarthy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.26
Will the Browns draft Cameron Ward?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.05
Will 3 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.08
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+688.6%+$191.94
Will the Vikings resign Sam Darnold?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.73
Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$11.66
Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$44
Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$11.1
Will Patrick Mahomes win Super Bowl LIX MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+316.7%+$32.64
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Hey Now"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$44.4
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Not Like Us"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$49.25
Scorigami in Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$59.11
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 100 and 110 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last more than 150 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$13.7
Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$55.38
Will Jared Goff win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$45.69
Will Bo Nix win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$11.13
Will Patrick Surtain II win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+843.4%+$214.81
Will the Commanders win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$16.12
Will Jordan Love win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$55
Will the Bears hire Drew Petzing as their next head coach?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$20.02
Will the Rams win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$55.03
Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$41.39
Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$53.89
Will another player be the top Fantasy Flex Player?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$154.67
Showing 25 of 74 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 27, 2025, EDT7014.3%10 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 70 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.21
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.03
Will Rachel Maddow be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.36
CHIPS Act repealed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.98
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.58
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$134.63
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$85.66
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.93
Will Trump impose tariffs on Japan in the first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT+1,200.6%+$234.53
Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.71
Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.21
Will Trump pass a border/immigration law in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.55
25% aluminum tariff in effect before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.15
Will 100-150k federal employees accept the buyout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$40.78
Will Trump sue AOC before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$23.49
Will Trump list the Gulf Cartel as a terrorist organization before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$73.06
Will Trump list MS-13 as a terrorist organization before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$81.28
Will Trump list the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) as a terrorist organization before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$11.81
Will Trump list the Sinaloa Cartel as a terrorist organization before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10.45
Will DOGE cut $1B from USAID before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+354.5%+$133.29
Trump transgender sports ban?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST-100%-$21.99
Will Pam Bondi be Trump's Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$70.29
Trump declassifies JFK files in first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$12.11
Trump claims largest inauguration crowd ever?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$19.34
Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada in his first week? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$35.78
Showing 25 of 70 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2025, EDT4318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will $HYPE be the next coin listed on Robinhood?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.45
Will Fartcoin be listed on a t1 exchange before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.82
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.46
Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.31
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+764.7%+$81.88
PartyDAO airdrop in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.41
Aleo airdrop in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.29
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.125 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.45
Farcaster airdrop in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.53
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.17
Astaria airdrop in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.39
Will another country launch a memecoin in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$65.49
Will Dave Portnoy launch a coin before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$135.23
Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$63.95
Will Berachain launch a token in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$15.49
Will MAGA reach $1b first?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$168.63
No Trump coin reaches $1b?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+214.5%+$69.18
Will Berachain launch a token in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$16.23
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$205.48
$POPCAT listed on Binance or Coinbase in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$39.79
Aleo airdrop in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+316.7%+$205.59
Berachain airdrop in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+668.8%+$697.73
Pudgy Penguins airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST+374.6%+$225.61
Will Berachain launch a token in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$58.45
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 before December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+300%+$42.6
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2025, EST3810.5%4 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye tweet 100-199 times February 20-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+488.2%+$84.28
Will Kanye tweet between 200-249 times February 8-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$13.45
Will Kanye tweet 700 or more times February 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$32.34
Will POTUS tweet 11-13 times Feb 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$163.44
Will Dittman tweet between 70 and 79 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2025, EST-100%-$16.37
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST+1,328.6%+$340.59
Will Trump tweet 4+ times by next Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST-100%-$92.75
Will Trump tweet less than 3 times Dec 6-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST+1,328.6%+$170.38
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 22-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$29.69
Will Trump tweet 50 or more times Nov 8-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$111.44
Will Trump tweet 100-109 times Nov 1-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$17.06
Will Trump tweet 50-59 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$14.64
Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.28
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times October 11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$64.35
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times October 4-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$18.47
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Elon tweet 125-149 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$62.5
Will Trump tweet 10-14 times September 27-October 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$62.15
Will Elon tweet 150-174 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$101.41
Will Elon tweet 125-149 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2024, EDT-100%-$20.11
Will Trump tweet 10-14 times September 13-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.02
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$12.77
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$74.97
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$101.08
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$16.64
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT3613.9%5 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross less than $370m by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will "The Only Girl in the Orchestra" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+270.4%+$29.02
Will "A Real Pain" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$13.42
Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST+334.8%+$70.35
Will "Heart Eyes" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $12m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$11.21
Will 'Challengers' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$83.81
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$160.19
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$62.54
Rege-Jean Page announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$30.53
Another actor announced as next James Bond actor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$50.23
Damson Idris announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$65.09
Cosmo Jarvis announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$24.79
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$26.95
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$15.42
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$77.86
Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST-100%-$59.82
Will 'Nosferatu' gross between $25-30m on 5-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST-100%-$103.71
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+2,195.2%+$1,194.38
Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70-79?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$43.16
Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-69?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$23.91
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $22-25m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST-100%-$13.8
Will 'Red One' gross between $21-24m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$11.63
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $61-70m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$67.23
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross between $16-19m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2024, EDT+749.4%+$109.23
Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$19.05
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2025, EDT273.7%1 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick10cpaid-75.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.45
Canada backs out of F-35 deal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.2
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.98
Will Bloc Quebecois win between 26 and 30 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.23
Will Andrew Tate go to the UK before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.51
Will the CDU/CSU win 35-40% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.36
Canada federal election in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$182.69
Starmer out as UK prime minister in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$58.34
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be the next French Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST-100%-$14.84
Will PNL win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$22.94
Priti Patel next Conservative party leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$12.5
Tom Tugendhat next Conservative party leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$19.31
James Cleverly next Conservative party leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$220.52
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$102.49
Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$73.81
Will Brazil unban X before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$203.34
Edmundo González arrested before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$138.04
Another New Popular Front member next Prime Minister of France? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$172.61
Another Ensemble member next Prime Minister of France? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$297.21
Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$72.69
Valérie Rabault next Prime Minister of France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$20.71
Gabriel Attal next Prime Minister of France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$319.54
Francois Ruffin next Prime Minister of France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$46.48
Someone else next Prime Minister of France?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$15.78
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2025, EDT2611.5%3 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Texas Tech make the 2025 Final Four?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.73
George Washington vs. George Masonbacked George Washington · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.34
St. Louis vs. Loyola Chicagobacked St. Louis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.24
Army vs. Colgatebacked Army · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$14.11
Tennessee vs. Ole Missbacked Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+143.9%+$32.89
Valparaiso vs. UICbacked Valparaiso · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$11.66
Arkansas vs. South Carolinabacked Arkansas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10.62
Vermont vs. UMBCbacked UMBC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$16.47
Buffalo vs. Central Michiganbacked Buffalo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$12.79
Florida vs. LSUbacked LSU · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$32.72
Duke vs. Virginiabacked Virginia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$12.93
Jackson State vs. Bethune-Cookmanbacked Bethune-Cookman · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$27.58
Wright State vs. Green Baybacked Wright State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$26.1
East Carolina vs. Charlottebacked Charlotte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST-100%-$31.38
Charleston Southern vs. UNC Ashevillebacked Charleston Southern · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST-100%-$91.77
St. Joseph's vs. George Masonbacked St. Joseph's · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST-100%-$13.94
Miami (FL) vs. Pittsburghbacked Miami (FL) · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST-100%-$14.48
Idaho State vs. Montanabacked Idaho State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$14.56
UT Martin vs. SIU-Edwardsvillebacked UT Martin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST+614.3%+$89.44
Jacksonville State vs. Sam Houston Statebacked Jacksonville State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$22.64
Monmouth vs. Stony Brookbacked Stony Brook · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$17.95
VMI vs. UNC Greensborobacked VMI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$51.99
Colorado State vs. Utah Statebacked Colorado State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$48.75
Indiana vs. Michigan Statebacked Michigan State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$36.7
Tennessee vs. Kentuckybacked Kentucky · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST+316.7%+$69.82
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT2313%3 W · 20 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-52.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$184.02
Israel parliament dissolves in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$64.41
U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$17.58
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$32.11
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20.76
Palestine a UN member state before U.S. election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2024, EST-100%-$55
Netanyahu out by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$90.12
Israel military action against Iraq before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$21.19
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$227.94
Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT+338.3%+$179.11
Will Sinwar leave Gaza by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$102.66
ICC issues an arrest warrant for Yahya Sinwar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$14.99
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$53.88
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+284.6%+$88.09
Hezbollah enters Israel in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$120.93
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$33.6
Israel military action against Yemen before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2024, EDT+163.2%+$121.35
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$20.93
Israel withdraws from Gaza before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$325.41
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$59
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$54.37
Will Netanyahu meet with Biden?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$28.47
All 23 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT2020%4 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+77.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.85
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+944.6%+$215.11
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.04
Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-0backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.27
Will Kenny Atkinson win NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.72
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2024-25 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.92
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.89
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.01
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.38
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in Assists?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.29
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.81
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.03
Wizards vs. Pistonsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.4
Lakers vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+917.3%+$246.07
Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+805.3%+$739
Trail Blazers vs. Heatbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+488.2%+$111.08
Trail Blazers vs. Pistonsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$15.71
Hawks vs. Spursbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$18.22
Raptors vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST-100%-$33.29
Pistons vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$18.21
All 20 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2025, EDT1816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Newcastle United finish in the top 4 of EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$103.06
Will Nottingham Forest be relegated?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$174.71
Will Aston Villa lead the EPL in points at midway point?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10.6
Will Jude Bellingham win the Ballon d’Or?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$18.19
Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT+1,009.3%+$330.63
Will Eddie Howe be England's next manager?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$41.95
Will Vinicius Junior join a Saudi club?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.64
Will Victor Osimhen join Chelsea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$233.59
Will the U.S. win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT+170.4%+$304.31
Will another country win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$87.5
Will Brazil win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$23.47
Will France win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.6
Will Germany win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$286.76
Will Morocco win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$13
Will Japan win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$29.09
Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$43.31
Will Paraguay win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$77.5
Argentina wins Copa America 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2024, EDT+127.3%+$254.54
All 18 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2025, EDT1816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Leon Draisaitl win the Hart Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.63
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.61
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 President’s Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.58
Will the Golden Knights win the 2025 Preident's Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.05
Utah vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.71
Blue Jackets vs. Lightningbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$22.85
Maple Leafs vs. Canucksbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$19.8
Penguins vs. Rangersbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+488.2%+$170.84
Canucks vs. Sharksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+75.4%+$41.4
Maple Leafs vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$27.5
Oilers vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST-100%-$18.87
Sabres vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$21.26
Oilers vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$115.87
Sharks vs. Canucksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2024, EST-100%-$12.5
Utah vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$23.78
Ducks vs. Maple Leafsbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$200
Flyers vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST+566.7%+$86.94
All 18 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2025, EST1625%4 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+93.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 51 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+900%+$93.87
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$33.26
Will Cynthia Lummis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$35.74
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+1,119.5%+$406.71
John Ratcliffe confirmed as director of the CIA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$36.15
Will Jon Husted be appointed as the next Ohio senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+426.3%+$71.37
Will James Uthmeier be appointed as the next Florida senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$21.49
Will Jose Oliva be appointed as the next Florida senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$92.35
Will Jeanette Nunez be appointed as the next Florida senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$13.2
Will 8-11 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$10.19
Will John Cornyn be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$17.73
Will Steve Daines be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$46.42
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST-100%-$18.92
Will Kari Lake win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST-100%-$52.4
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 2-3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST+244.8%+$51.21
Will a Republican win Florida US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST-100%-$35.2
All 16 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2025, EDT1612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.04
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$27.39
Will another player win the US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$36.07
Will Jannik Sinner win the US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2024, EDT+809.1%+$436.1
Will Alexander Zverev win the US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$19.8
Will Coco Gauff win the US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$272.97
Will Novak Djokovic win the US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$125
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$100
Will Naomi Osaka win the US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Will Mirra Andreeva win the US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.1
Will another player win the 2024 ATP Cincinnati Men’s Singles tournament? Market Description:backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$42.08
Will another athlete win Gold in Men's Tennis?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$69.15
Will Novak Djokovic (SRB) win Gold in Men's Tennis?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2024, EDT+269.1%+$669.1
Will Alexander Zverev (GER) win Gold in Men's Tennis?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$360.64
Will Nadal win a gold medal in Paris?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$240.99
Will Daniil Medvedev (AIN) win Gold in Men's Tennis?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$112.48
All 16 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China win the 3rd most medals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$145.27
Will Great Britain win the 3rd most medals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT+750.3%+$251.47
Great Britain wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
Will another counrty win Gold in Women's Basketball?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$27.6
Will France win the 3rd most gold medals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$208.43
Will France win Gold in Men's Basketball?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$66.21
Will Serbia win Gold in Men's Basketball?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$120.97
Will Germany win Gold in Men's Basketball?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$16.21
Will Canada win Gold in Men's Basketball?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$32
Will Australia win Gold in Men's Basketball?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$80
Will Barbara Seixas & Carol Solberg (BRA) win Gold in Beach Volleyball?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$13.48
Will another athlete win Gold in Hammer Throw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$203.6
Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$200.59
Trump vs. Biden: Staircase Olympicsbacked Trump · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$206.1
All 14 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2025, EDT1315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.28
Will there be 4-6 inches of snow in NYC in Jan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10.62
Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$77.31
Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$13.74
Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$112.43
September temperature increase by between 1.17-1.22°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$29.91
September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$200
September temperature increase by more than 1.40°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$24.04
Will there be between 11 and 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.51
Will there be more than 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.39
August temperature increase greater than 1.29°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2024, EDT+669.2%+$150
August temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$32.69
2024 July hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT+122.5%+$62.92
All 13 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.03
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+332.9%+$66.57
Will Putin go on Lex Fridman before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$22.94
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$27.08
Ukraine hits Moscow before 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$24.63
Ukraine election scheduled in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$182.79
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$70.33
Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$169.93
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$454.98
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 14, 2025, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.39
DeepSeek R2 released before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+614.6%+$103.53
DeepSeek banned in US before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.03
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$24.43
GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$210.72
GPT-5 not announced in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$103.19
GPT-5 released in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$25.71
Will Apple invest in OpenAI in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$316.58
Elon Musk bans Apple devices at his companies?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$69.94
GPT-5 announced in Q3 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$37.48
ChatGPT integration with iPhone before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$427.34
All 11 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2025, EST1010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$33.01
Will Levon Aronian win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2024, EST-100%-$24.07
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 9 of the World Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2024, EST-100%-$22.5
Ding Liren plays in 2024 World Chess Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$15.74
Will Hans Niemann win the 2024 US Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2024, EDT-100%-$28.82
Will China win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$41.22
Will another team win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$17.76
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2024, EDT+426.3%+$81
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$88.09
Will Wesley So win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.93
All 10 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2025, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-74.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$15.3
Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.79
Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$17.61
Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$31.23
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the National League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$62.73
Yankees vs. Guardians Series Winnerbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$200
Will the Detroit Tigers win the American League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$13.84
Will the San Diego Padres win the World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$157.95
Will the San Diego Padres win the National League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$31.64
All 9 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+100.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Nov 3, 2024, EST520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fenerbahce win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.81
Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.84
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 2GAME Esports win the VCT 2025 Americas Kickoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$24.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Weibo Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$64.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pershing Square IPO in 2024? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$14.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atlanta United win the 2024 MLS Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$42.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lazio win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Venezuela intervention by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$58.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Magny vs. Pratesbacked Magny · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$18.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jordan Griff win the WSOP main event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$80
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.