NFL · resolved market
Will Patrick Surtain II win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8665cd2f0254a96e3f558210a109705f4f18f00f3702954c166bcb3795d5fa2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Yes | 18c | 2,954$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,414.49 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…0502backed No | 10c | 2,949$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.33 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…74aebacked No | 10c | 2,157$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.86 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 19c | 1,560$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.08 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked No | 76c | 630$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed Yes | 73c | 590$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 78c | 351$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 329.46$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.89 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70f4…1e3dbacked Yes | 11c | 319.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.09 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yes | 44c | 275.57$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.62 | 162 | 59.9%97 W · 65 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 11c | 240.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.81 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 48c | 240.17$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 201.89$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked Yes | 42c | 197.49$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 53c | 131.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 24c | 124.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 61c | 119.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 78c | 90.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 80c | 82.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…c93abacked Yes | 77c | 73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ba…dc89backed No | 24c | 73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 59c | 70.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 16c | 62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…e85abacked No | 21c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc31…c060backed Yes | 79c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 77c | 45.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…0d3dbacked Yes | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b64…2bcbbacked No | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2621…77e0backed No | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe142…a868backed Yes | 79c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e6…bb84backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b7…1f27backed Yes | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…5cd2backed Yes | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6841…154cbacked Yes | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 42c | 32.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4471…2339backed Yes | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 41c | 30.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e98…20a3backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…7f71backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d0…d953backed Yes | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc61…79a1backed No | 36c | 28.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…2a65backed Yes | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d3…2425backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2468…5a76backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b7…c04fbacked Yes | 65c | 23.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c97…627bbacked Yes | 64c | 22.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce21…8df6backed Yes | 64c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e9…2285backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c75…399fbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ee…43e6backed Yes | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…1a33backed Yes | 64c | 18.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…f239backed Yes | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f6…723ebacked Yes | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Patrick Surtain II win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?this page
- Will Chris Jones win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Danielle Hunter win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Dexter Lawrence win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Fred Warner win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Maxx Crosby win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Micah Parsons win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Myles Garrett win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Nick Bosa win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will TJ Watt win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Trey Hendrickson win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Will Anderson win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Xavier McKinney win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will another player win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.