NFL · resolved market
Will TJ Watt win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e11d4db846d9bd010ba3c365fca4f13e564ba5917d0954535a308cc71d0c305
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b9e…74aebacked Yes | 3c | 12,350$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.23 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 3c | 9,752$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.94 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 1c | 5,242$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…c903backed Yes | 2c | 5,003$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 3,710$2,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.36 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yes | 60c | 2,972$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.91 | 162 | 59.9%97 W · 65 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…6af8backed Yes | 69c | 2,066$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.21 | 125 | 70.4%88 W · 37 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 64c | 1,102$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.77 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Yes | 57c | 660.53$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.44 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked No | 34c | 606.68$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.41 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 35c | 580$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 569.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 64c | 490$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.9 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 37c | 412.76$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.15 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 37c | 372.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.43 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…5a9bbacked No | 34c | 352.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +183.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 342.99$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.43 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 13c | 270.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…79a4backed No | 39c | 255$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…50a4backed Yes | 69c | 250$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 34c | 212.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed No | 31c | 208$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…26e8backed Yes | 70c | 197.08$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.73 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1657…9be6backed Yes | 52c | 192.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f74…3567backed No | 34c | 190.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +199.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x698e…8042backed Yes | 53c | 187.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…1d7abacked No | 58c | 182.64$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 76c | 175.29$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 55c | 173.81$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed Yes | 7c | 169.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 61c | 165.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 79c | 160.97$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Yes | 36c | 160.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes | 70c | 140.69$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 41c | 120.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 11c | 114.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…f409backed No | 36c | 108.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 43c | 106.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9789…ed85backed Yes | 70c | 81.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 33c | 78.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 21c | 73.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…1c14backed No | 40c | 72.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x112a…c789backed No | 42c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…a275backed Yes | 70c | 68.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a6…3e59backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…1ebdbacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 78%39 W · 11 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf10d…9ac6backed Yes | 69c | 60.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…9d9bbacked Yes | 50c | 60.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 70c | 57.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da2…1486backed No | 33c | 55.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde2…db05backed Yes | 69c | 52.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…e8f7backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf563…9663backed Yes | 70c | 47.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…f630backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…34a6backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 53c | 41.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abf…45eabacked Yes | 69c | 37.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d9…3f39backed Yes | 70c | 36.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x305a…5256backed Yes | 43c | 35.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed Yes | 42c | 33.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…e311backed No | 32c | 33.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…51c1backed Yes | 70c | 32.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7036…977abacked Yes | 67c | 32.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5f…6a53backed No | 36c | 30.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691e…5efbbacked Yes | 68c | 29.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…eeaebacked Yes | 70c | 29.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x803c…bbbebacked No | 39c | 28.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…f8d0backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…880ebacked Yes | 67c | 23.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…291dbacked Yes | 47c | 21.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…bba2backed Yes | 68c | 16.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TJ Watt win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?this page
- Will Chris Jones win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Danielle Hunter win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Dexter Lawrence win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Fred Warner win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Maxx Crosby win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Micah Parsons win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Myles Garrett win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Nick Bosa win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Patrick Surtain II win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?Yes won
- Will Trey Hendrickson win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Will Anderson win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Xavier McKinney win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will another player win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.