TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe87f…9d9b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
82
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst College Football at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST5028%14 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 50 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Josh Allen win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$34.38
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+268%+$364.11
Will Joe Burrow win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$157.8
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$113.13
Will the Packers win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Trey McBride be the Top Fantasy Tight End for the 2025–26 NFL Regular Season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+426.3%+$234.09
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$488Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$488.46
Will Ja'Marr Chase be the Top Fantasy Wide Receiver for the 2025–26 NFL Regular Season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$66
Will Nico Collins be the Top Fantasy Wide Receiver for the 2025–26 NFL Regular Season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$29.5
Will CeeDee Lamb be the Top Fantasy Wide Receiver for the 2025–26 NFL Regular Season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$37.5
Will De'Von Achane be the Top Fantasy Running Back for the 2025–26 NFL Regular Season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$25.91
49ers vs. Brownsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$66
Spread: 49ers (-4.5)backed Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Josh Allen record the most fantasy points in Week 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+1,150%+$184
Fantasy Football: Fields vs. Rodgers - Week 1 backed Fields · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+68.1%+$40.5
Fantasy Football: Hurts vs Prescott - Week 1 backed Hurts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+58.3%+$69.02
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT+809.1%+$311.5
Will Myles Garrett be traded before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$47
Will Jalen Milroe be the third QB taken in the 2025 NFL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will 2 QB, 1 DB, 1 EDGE, and 1 OT, be taken with the first 5 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.33
Will the Browns draft Travis Hunter?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Abdul Carter be the second pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted top 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+57.9%+$11.58
Will the Patriots draft Travis Hunter in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.05
Will Abdul Carter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.9
Showing 25 of 50 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2025, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-69.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+195.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick25cpaid+129%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+170.3%+$189
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+316.7%+$47.5
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$75
All 3 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Notre Dame vs. Penn Statebacked Penn State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Ashton Jeanty win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Juan Soto sign with the New York Mets?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST+81.8%+$9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Bayern (To Advance) backed PSG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$80
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester City wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.