Middle East · resolved market
US military action against Iran before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a67b9d828d53862160e470329ffea5246f338ecfffdf2cab45211ec578b0347
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,917,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,715,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,917,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 5,800 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked No | 0c | 1,564,780$2,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,269.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…4925backed No | 0c | 1,360,914$3,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,660.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 49c | 930,504$453,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476,729.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…4e28backed Yes | 65c | 914,598$597,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316,938.59 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 23cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…74cebacked No | 60c | 401,353$240,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240,601.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 54c | 337,578$181,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156,005.16 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 44c | 288,647$128,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128,316.08 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce41…fa02backed Yes | 61c | 285,627$173,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111,886.93 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 57c | 250,667$142,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107,764.24 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 72c | 242,076$174,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,513.88 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d78…3e8cbacked No | 3c | 233,323$6,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,078.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79db…fd14backed No | 42c | 225,931$95,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95,433.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked Yes | 77c | 217,550$166,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,076.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed No | 45c | 210,453$95,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95,639.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 49c | 208,142$102,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105,638.52 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…ac10backed Yes | 58c | 197,340$113,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83,650.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +168%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ff…79dcbacked No | 55c | 181,241$99,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99,861.7 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x322d…ee5ebacked No | 30c | 165,774$49,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,977.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 35c | 157,941$55,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102,022.29 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed No | 0c | 135,695$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d5…8495backed Yes | 59c | 135,667$79,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,802.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96a…396abacked Yes | 64c | 135,000$86,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 42c | 130,208$54,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,961.54 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 29c | 127,016$36,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,242.54 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa628…1943backed No | 18c | 122,470$22,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,191.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 37c | 115,541$42,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,763.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91cd…52a4backed No | 25c | 106,331$26,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,582.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…ad91backed No | 35c | 100,180$34,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,862 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d5…ba09backed No | 62c | 99,664$61,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,560.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…d936backed No | 1c | 99,591$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.57 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6c…5239backed No | 54c | 97,649$52,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,344.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 55c | 97,376$53,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,802.08 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 47c | 96,295$45,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,178 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3283…1da9backed No | 48c | 95,532$46,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,173.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…403bbacked No | 38c | 93,901$35,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,259.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…9290backed Yes | 39c | 93,024$36,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,877.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 61c | 92,052$55,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,168.52 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…b74abacked No | 45c | 91,543$41,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,386.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Yes | 58c | 86,112$49,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,432.47 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…3ca9backed Yes | 54c | 83,166$45,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,040.55 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…4231backed Yes | 39c | 81,229$31,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,356.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 47c | 80,499$37,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,745.73 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 64c | 78,775$50,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,704.86 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 37c | 78,519$29,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,349.96 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 45c | 77,761$34,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,954.24 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 41c | 77,655$31,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,013.5 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd1…500dbacked No | 32c | 76,559$24,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,441.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed No | 42c | 73,715$31,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,317.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1819…bd20backed No | 50c | 73,448$36,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,451.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c28…f2cabacked No | 45c | 72,645$32,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,334.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed No | 43c | 72,311$31,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,109.56 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…6adbbacked Yes | 56c | 70,918$39,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,113.31 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…34b6backed Yes | 44c | 70,730$31,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,335.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe12a…d428backed Yes | 55c | 69,363$37,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,505.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 25c | 69,311$17,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,034.01 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 68c | 68,744$46,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,968.68 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 55c | 66,605$36,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,857.99 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 53c | 65,182$34,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,512.66 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60c…85c0backed Yes | 44c | 64,851$28,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,604.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…fe12backed Yes | 57c | 63,300$36,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,285.35 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc060…8956backed Yes | 64c | 62,382$40,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,381.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6c…5ba4backed Yes | 65c | 61,837$40,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,764.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 44c | 61,132$27,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,097.66 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 44c | 61,110$27,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,972.67 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbb…05a8backed Yes | 63c | 59,692$37,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,331.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes | 16c | 58,284$9,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,243.76 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eed…7304backed Yes | 51c | 57,894$29,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,176.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…5e5abacked Yes | 53c | 57,548$30,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,802.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 42c | 56,730$23,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,776.59 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 47c | 56,224$26,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,871.07 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 58c | 56,199$32,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,438.65 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a91…3c5ebacked No | 52c | 56,197$29,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,356.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 38c | 55,469$21,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,278.48 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…81e6backed No | 30c | 55,398$16,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,456.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…322dbacked No | 50c | 54,548$27,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,022.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 41c | 54,462$22,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,598.25 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 66c | 54,005$35,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,601.19 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 54c | 53,818$29,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,653.79 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…719bbacked Yes | 50c | 52,369$25,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,375 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ab…b6f3backed No | 58c | 51,880$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d34cbacked No | 42c | 51,648$21,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,656.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 60c | 50,700$30,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,642.33 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…cfdabacked Yes | 40c | 49,446$19,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,672.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +174.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 46c | 49,026$22,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,524.21 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…ce36backed No | 40c | 48,460$19,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,536.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 44c | 47,448$20,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,827.4 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 63c | 47,000$29,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,306.35 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked Yes | 60c | 46,756$28,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,601.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked No | 45c | 46,748$21,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,064.61 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed Yes | 42c | 46,729$19,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,000.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked No | 50c | 45,978$23,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,115.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 40c | 45,891$18,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,183.79 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…ad53backed No | 32c | 45,791$14,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,722.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 60c | 45,170$26,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,879.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 53c | 44,252$23,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,771.25 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 53c | 43,972$23,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,479.1 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…f14fbacked No | 52c | 43,876$22,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,749.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…9558backed No | 49c | 43,813$21,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,510.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 48c | 43,106$20,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,676.58 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…e6e4backed No | 0c | 43,076$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.