TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf7f5…fe12

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
86
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 54 out of 100; worst NFL at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$210.31
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$3,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,400.39
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$141
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$206.51
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.14
US forces enter Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$425Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$425.42
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$4,866Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+258.8%+$12,593.34
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,477Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+80.7%+$1,998.3
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+127.3%+$381.92
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+354.5%+$354.55
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$2,504Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,504.14
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$993Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$993.49
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$225
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,223Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,223.21
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$657Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$657.06
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$3,126Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+44.1%+$1,378.34
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$36,015Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+75.8%+$27,285.35
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,960Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+91.2%+$2,699.64
All 18 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Metsbacked Minnesota Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$970Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$970.11
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationalsbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+69.8%+$81.56
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USAbacked Dominican Rep. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.55
Dodgers vs. Piratesbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$349.05
Marlins vs. Nationalsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.95
Yankees vs. White Soxbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Yankees vs. White Soxbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+152.5%+$234.89
Yankees vs. White Soxbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$120
Marlins vs. Metsbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$86
Diamondbacks vs. Brewersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$210.66
Red Sox vs. Oriolesbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$498Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+59.9%+$298.59
Marlins vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$265.55
Athletics vs. Tigersbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$101.5
Marlins vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Nationals vs. Padresbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT+150%+$407.99
Dodgers vs. Rockiesbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$362Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$442.29
Nationals vs. Padresbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.6
All 17 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST1637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown end November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$23.99
Will the government shutdown end November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$78.19
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$745Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$744.58
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$63.75
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,717Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+190.9%+$3,278
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$4,282Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+45.2%+$1,935.67
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$4,234Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+118.8%+$5,028.17
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$212.5
Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$214.56
The 'Bill' Epstein Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$218.12
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$4,968Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+38.3%+$1,900.73
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$247.35
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$984Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST+62.3%+$612.86
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$110.5
Trump wins a solid blue state?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$299.29
All 16 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST1428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Eagles vs. Packersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+101.7%+$528.98
49ers vs. Buccaneersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Seahawks vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Eagles (-7.5)backed Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,000
Eagles vs. Giantsbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Commanders vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$126.25
Buccaneers vs. Seahawksbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$121.5
Broncos vs. Eaglesbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$270.37
Dolphins vs. Panthersbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$86.92
Giants vs. Saintsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$3,624Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,623.75
Chargers vs. Giantsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$192
Seahawks vs. Cardinalsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$110.57
Falcons vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Texans vs. Jetsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$37.5
All 14 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 18, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
76ers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$759Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$226.83
Rockets vs. Bullsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.03
Warriors vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+100%+$116.18
Lakers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,960Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+26.3%+$514.74
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$454.79
All 5 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$365.45
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritzbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+122.2%+$121
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$277
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$275.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$145.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pereira vs. Ankalaevbacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$588Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$587.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$105.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.