Middle East · resolved market
US forces enter Iran by March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf94145fa5716d4bfd2948ce5eef2954dcb560516ccbba5e8b68059027e431cdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,634,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,634,906 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 946 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 1c | 310,703$3,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,819.66 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed Yes | 7c | 186,667$12,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,445.17 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 10c | 143,732$14,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,014.04 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 2c | 94,340$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.93 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…59cebacked Yes | 1c | 87,083$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.85 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 18cpaid | +279.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…a597backed Yes | 0c | 78,160$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.84 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 9c | 77,071$6,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,941.22 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…f022backed Yes | 7c | 65,433$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5debbacked Yes | 1c | 64,599$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 1c | 60,520$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.99 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 58,280$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.66 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 6c | 54,398$3,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,230.38 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 4c | 53,482$2,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,258.12 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…e8b8backed Yes | 20c | 49,504$10,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,002 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbc…9ed9backed Yes | 3c | 45,934$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 8c | 44,675$3,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,494.95 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5575…0fe3backed Yes | 5c | 44,111$2,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,057.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 23c | 42,757$9,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,848.12 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba30…ca1cbacked Yes | 8c | 39,367$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x744d…39b2backed Yes | 4c | 38,812$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 1c | 37,990$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…6a54backed Yes | 0c | 34,332$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 2c | 33,683$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.58 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 2c | 33,495$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.45 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 31,975$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.42 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…5ff2backed Yes | 10c | 30,602$3,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,080.71 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 7c | 30,000$2,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,032.31 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 1c | 29,000$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.7 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 5c | 28,561$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.76 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 6c | 26,234$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.61 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 18c | 26,160$4,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,632.04 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 5c | 23,130$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.82 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed Yes | 1c | 22,953$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…74babacked Yes | 46c | 22,944$10,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,659.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131b…97c3backed Yes | 6c | 22,500$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 28cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0db5…f3aabacked Yes | 0c | 22,300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c7…d693backed Yes | 2c | 21,494$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.89 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.28per pick | 25cpaid | +180.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe12e…c453backed Yes | 1c | 21,091$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x469b…7e0ebacked Yes | 2c | 20,980$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes | 18c | 20,480$3,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,740 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e72…0306backed Yes | 6c | 20,008$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f4…3144backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 13c | 18,530$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460.02 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 2c | 18,075$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.01 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 6c | 16,970$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.88 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 79c | 16,801$13,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,587.82 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 9c | 16,457$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa23…33e0backed Yes | 2c | 15,812$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…ed6dbacked Yes | 1c | 15,533$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 1cpaid | +2,534.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 57c | 15,420$8,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,603.26 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 2c | 15,092$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…eddabacked Yes | 4c | 15,029$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.12 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 1c | 14,881$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…8f5ebacked Yes | 2c | 14,769$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 6c | 14,740$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.86 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…1935backed Yes | 1c | 14,504$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 8c | 13,849$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.36 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…a886backed Yes | 21c | 13,565$2,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,811.04 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 4c | 13,496$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.68 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…39dbbacked Yes | 9c | 12,430$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.08 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0592…70e7backed Yes | 13c | 12,403$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.06 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 4c | 12,254$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.01 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 5c | 11,936$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.06 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…df72backed Yes | 8c | 11,778$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 6c | 11,539$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.14 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 6c | 11,217$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.2 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a1…2877backed Yes | 2c | 11,131$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb93e…b8fdbacked Yes | 11c | 10,576$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 11c | 10,307$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.16 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 9c | 10,135$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.58 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6547…82b3backed Yes | 9c | 10,131$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 1c | 10,059$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…7f2bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes | 7c | 10,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a0…65f7backed Yes | 2c | 9,954$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 6c | 9,515$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.37 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…0e3cbacked Yes | 43c | 9,502$4,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,130.62 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 11c | 9,456$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.31 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 9,100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed Yes | 2c | 9,064$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.87 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ece…6244backed Yes | 5c | 9,027$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.3 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 74c | 8,869$6,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,299.64 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…4268backed Yes | 7c | 8,791$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 74 | 21.6%16 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 8,354$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe413…32d3backed Yes | 3c | 8,213$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.1 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe12f…8ffebacked Yes | 4c | 8,088$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.96 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…b8f8backed Yes | 8c | 8,000$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.01 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…58e0backed Yes | 7c | 7,920$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 7c | 7,616$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ea…15cdbacked Yes | 67c | 7,576$5,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,047.82 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3144…fee9backed Yes | 2c | 7,451$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2618…3741backed Yes | 5c | 7,258$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 5c | 7,034$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.53 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…5f13backed Yes | 8c | 7,011$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…24e9backed Yes | 4c | 6,740$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2a…d889backed Yes | 4c | 6,675$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…22ddbacked Yes | 6c | 6,610$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…abddbacked Yes | 2c | 6,553$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US forces enter Iran by March 7?this page
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes won
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes won
- US forces enter Iran by February 28?No won
- US forces enter Iran by January 31?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 14?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 1?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.