Middle East · resolved market
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $269,049,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $226,821,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,049,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 11,425 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e9c…6421backed No | 0c | 15,945,023$68,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,212.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…54b2backed No | 0c | 7,456,820$28,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,488.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed No | 0c | 7,175,068$29,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,064.85 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 0c | 5,284,696$6,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,477.14 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 0c | 4,550,275$20,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,542.34 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x950e…f8e5backed No | 1c | 4,125,001$22,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,025 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021e…67ebbacked No | 0c | 3,567,500$7,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,135 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7a…29f6backed No | 1c | 3,394,119$19,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,672.17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa551…e050backed No | 0c | 3,358,593$12,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,881.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +279.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc958…7d59backed No | 0c | 2,681,961$4,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,880.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 1c | 2,408,679$13,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,219.26 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…29d0backed No | 0c | 2,366,825$7,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,466.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dae…b108backed No | 1c | 2,010,334$12,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,130.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…e0a7backed No | 0c | 1,817,667$6,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,117 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…cd02backed No | 0c | 1,781,748$8,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,500.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb00…93ddbacked No | 0c | 1,641,617$3,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,428.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +1,823.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37c…cd7ebacked No | 9c | 1,551,789$137,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137,089.13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…80d4backed No | 0c | 1,495,895$2,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,991.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe95…2803backed No | 0c | 1,434,917$5,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d8…e2abbacked No | 3c | 1,403,885$43,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,407.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +270.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…3958backed No | 0c | 1,326,057$2,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,782.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked No | 0c | 1,050,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb341…fd07backed No | 0c | 1,000,082$2,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,045 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c75…3c94backed No | 0c | 1,000,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2a…da43backed No | 0c | 995,790$2,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,987.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…0db6backed No | 0c | 894,345$3,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,111.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9182…3368backed No | 0c | 855,615$3,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,793.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…4466backed No | 0c | 854,836$3,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,976.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…f2ddbacked No | 2c | 834,336$16,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,571 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7983…857cbacked No | 0c | 811,510$1,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 63c | 800,780$508,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292,591.11 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e6…1f0ebacked No | 0c | 800,140$3,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,201.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…e563backed No | 0c | 777,500$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf74…d8bcbacked No | 0c | 767,939$2,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,306.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +551.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…fffdbacked No | 0c | 695,188$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9343…d6d9backed No | 0c | 688,636$3,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,148.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…87e5backed No | 0c | 663,203$2,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,389.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…e6bfbacked No | 0c | 625,750$2,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,282 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…02c3backed Yes | 62c | 620,990$384,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236,096.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked No | 0c | 600,851$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…c4f0backed No | 0c | 598,300$1,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,706 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f8…42aebacked No | 0c | 591,959$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…ed4fbacked No | 0c | 587,555$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe04a…b8bdbacked No | 0c | 574,734$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…1bc0backed No | 0c | 564,036$1,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…a6edbacked No | 0c | 550,529$1,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,939.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0267backed No | 0c | 546,105$2,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,456.42 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…21cfbacked No | 0c | 542,220$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…5104backed No | 1c | 534,675$2,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,836 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c45…cf06backed No | 9c | 533,693$47,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,528.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…189dbacked No | 0c | 529,515$2,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b58…6c71backed No | 0c | 528,897$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93db…4cbebacked No | 0c | 523,500$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f8…d32cbacked No | 1c | 513,510$5,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,120.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2825…4362backed No | 0c | 513,333$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c6…ef85backed No | 0c | 507,311$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d7…0f4abacked No | 0c | 500,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183d…1270backed No | 0c | 500,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1f38backed No | 0c | 499,328$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…60c7backed No | 0c | 498,630$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked No | 0c | 495,834$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.83 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81ee…2286backed No | 1c | 487,494$6,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,956.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfe…b540backed No | 0c | 478,665$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f2…d513backed No | 1c | 445,096$2,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,225.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x659a…e44cbacked No | 1c | 440,077$3,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,536.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…9873backed No | 1c | 439,310$4,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,408.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…ca9abacked No | 0c | 432,461$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +479.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 10c | 417,120$42,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,619.06 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…d484backed No | 1c | 408,096$2,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e4…c2debacked No | 0c | 400,550$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55a0…8b02backed No | 0c | 397,100$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.75 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb33f…1d96backed No | 0c | 387,332$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…81cebacked No | 1c | 379,105$2,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,393.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 28c | 374,413$103,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103,304.98 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…9b01backed No | 11c | 372,050$41,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,067.74 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1919…8f92backed No | 0c | 370,000$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de4…166bbacked No | 0c | 367,375$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…17f4backed No | 0c | 366,667$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 74c | 365,319$270,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95,296.24 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2242…5818backed No | 0c | 363,845$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e1…1e82backed No | 0c | 344,316$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…0ccabacked No | 0c | 341,167$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25a…4808backed No | 0c | 337,001$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cf…38dbbacked No | 0c | 336,667$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…5ec9backed No | 0c | 335,776$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f70…0ca9backed No | 1c | 335,332$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.44 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…14c9backed No | 0c | 333,167$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d5…7767backed No | 0c | 332,547$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 16c | 330,307$52,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,066.79 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…062abacked No | 0c | 325,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…ce25backed No | 0c | 323,600$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…265bbacked No | 0c | 312,103$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…8c7fbacked No | 0c | 309,000$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7993…55b3backed No | 0c | 308,293$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe04a…094fbacked No | 0c | 307,776$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…264abacked No | 0c | 306,518$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed No | 0c | 305,799$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked No | 7c | 304,836$20,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,080.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbed…10f7backed Yes | 61c | 290,020$176,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113,456.67 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2d…3cf8backed No | 0c | 287,667$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +88%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?this page
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes won
- US forces enter Iran by February 28?No won
- US forces enter Iran by January 31?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 14?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 1?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 3?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.