TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8c80…02c3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
70
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst UFC at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT3525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovicbacked Novak Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$97,436Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$97,436.12
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolobacked Jannik Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$108,351Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$108,350.95
Madrid Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,302Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$531.64
Madrid Open: Alexander Bublik vs Stefanos Tsitsipasbacked Alexander Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$35,369Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$35,368.61
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$45,102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$45,102.39
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverevbacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$4,019Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,018.58
Miami Open: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$5,972Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,971.63
BNP Paribas Open: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15,497Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15,496.85
BNP Paribas Open: Jack Draper vs Daniil Medvedevbacked Jack Draper · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$44,557Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$44,556.84
BNP Paribas Open: Joao Fonseca vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$3,215Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,215.01
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$119,094Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$119,094.29
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,194Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,194.04
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Djokovic (+2.5)backed Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+51.5%+$16,999.99
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovicbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$26,000
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$41,376Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+236.4%+$97,823.62
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakinabacked Rybakina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$34,200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+75.4%+$25,799.99
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$52,930Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$52,930.42
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11,942Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+1,011.1%+$120,749.6
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$182,922Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+190.9%+$349,175.16
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolinabacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40,728Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+25%+$10,195.69
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$622Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$622.45
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$345
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$138.88
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$2,088Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$2,087.78
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$550,410Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+40%+$220,367.16
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$384,893Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$236,096.92
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$46,934Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$46,934.23
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$688Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+143.9%+$989.9
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$102,040Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+52.8%+$53,837.1
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$255,965Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+65.5%+$167,578.45
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76,740Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+31.3%+$24,042.81
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$56,089Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+429.7%+$241,016.55
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$3,253Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$3,253.1
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,331Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$1,330.85
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,071Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$1,070.85
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$9,543Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$9,543.14
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12,009Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$12,009.48
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$3,044Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$3,043.87
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$3,664Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$3,664.01
All 15 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$253,243Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$253,243.11
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$479,479Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+102%+$488,970.06
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$204,064Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$204,063.88
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$34,836Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$34,836.04
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$8,836Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$43,138.6
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$116,074Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$116,073.81
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18,233Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$18,232.66
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$299,098Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+150.7%+$450,880.32
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$170,817Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$170,817.26
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$225,598Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$225,597.62
All 10 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-32.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13,427Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+244.2%+$32,790.53
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.