TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Svitolina
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,285,393
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,397,296

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,285,393 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 444 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83b4…13c9backed Svitolina14c142,651$20,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,362.623647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Svitolina20c136,257$27,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,320.72245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+81.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c80…02c3backed Sabalenka80c50,924$40,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,195.693525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x979f…4032backed Sabalenka80c46,000$36,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,309.9910162.4%63 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Sabalenka80c43,757$35,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,756.694560%27 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbca1…dd13backed Svitolina20c43,185$8,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,6374645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Svitolina22c41,030$8,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,932.5919134%65 W · 126 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Svitolina20c40,000$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,999.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Sabalenka79c32,911$26,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,911.3910931.2%34 W · 75 L-9.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Svitolina20c28,466$5,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,598.4510443.3%45 W · 59 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Svitolina9c28,019$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,390.1380938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Sabalenka80c25,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00057249.5%283 W · 289 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x681d…3fa1backed Svitolina4c23,905$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.521618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-63.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Svitolina10c20,424$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.422,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Svitolina20c20,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0002356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+35.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Sabalenka78c18,280$14,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,021.61,18848.9%581 W · 607 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Svitolina20c17,500$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50015832.9%52 W · 106 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ec…8c18backed Svitolina7c17,271$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.1525.8%3 W · 49 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Svitolina10c15,961$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,553.612,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27c5…6d61backed Svitolina22c15,623$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500.316235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Svitolina20c15,019$3,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,003.884944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked Svitolina5c13,947$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.373336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…5394backed Sabalenka80c13,727$10,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,745.48785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick64cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99fb…acbabacked Sabalenka80c12,748$10,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,557.4625464.6%164 W · 90 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Sabalenka79c11,055$8,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,321.465955.9%33 W · 26 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7daf…0ec8backed Sabalenka80c10,939$8,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,187.7510043%43 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Svitolina20c10,881$2,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,176.311242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ee…47c8backed Sabalenka79c10,494$8,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,192.2220261.4%124 W · 78 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Svitolina21c10,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10017823%41 W · 137 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67e7…52cabacked Svitolina21c9,524$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ab3…12b2backed Sabalenka80c8,889$7,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.78475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf403…e176backed Svitolina21c8,889$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.66520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-67.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3ac…5018backed Svitolina21c8,603$1,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80220844.2%92 W · 116 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12fd…be65backed Svitolina1c6,905$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.711612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Svitolina19c6,779$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.031,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Svitolina21c6,176$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.958721.8%19 W · 68 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc92a…35fbbacked Svitolina13c6,176$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Sabalenka80c6,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x632a…ac85backed Sabalenka80c5,625$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1252100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+71.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6286…5307backed Svitolina21c5,625$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Sabalenka80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick71cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Svitolina20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019835.4%70 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42c1…e644backed Sabalenka80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0004266.7%28 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Sabalenka80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0008060%48 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Svitolina20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-50.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Svitolina21c5,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.9923731.6%75 W · 162 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7555…49d2backed Svitolina20c4,922$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc29…422abacked Svitolina9c4,910$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.3413727.7%38 W · 99 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Svitolina20c4,500$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92028141.6%117 W · 164 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Sabalenka78c4,388$3,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.2675046.8%351 W · 399 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e92…c03fbacked Svitolina21c4,235$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Sabalenka78c4,053$3,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.6813934.5%48 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Svitolina21c4,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84029045.9%133 W · 157 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Sabalenka80c4,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80045457.9%263 W · 191 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Sabalenka78c4,000$3,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8903158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Svitolina22c3,911$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.349264.1%59 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f58…6f3cbacked Sabalenka79c3,671$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.891241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadb4…3214backed Svitolina28c3,500$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9802326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bb3…b7febacked Svitolina22c3,327$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+30.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Svitolina14c3,198$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.833,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…ea3bbacked Svitolina8c2,839$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.5533246.4%154 W · 178 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Svitolina21c2,688$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.4316340.5%66 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Svitolina21c2,609$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.9918237.9%69 W · 113 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Svitolina22c2,500$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55037540.8%153 W · 222 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed Svitolina20c2,500$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.992227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Sabalenka80c2,443$1,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.657841%32 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x888d…2dd6backed Svitolina4c2,443$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-64.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Svitolina20c2,441$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002524%6 W · 19 L-5.8wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-53.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xce16…d66fbacked Svitolina21c2,398$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.551250%6 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+121.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5067…a127backed Sabalenka80c2,266$1,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.1610756.1%60 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa394…89e9backed Sabalenka80c2,250$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Sabalenka78c2,224$1,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.341,63450%817 W · 817 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Svitolina7c2,191$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Sabalenka79c2,165$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.5613753.3%73 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5203…966bbacked Sabalenka79c2,039$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c03…d894backed Svitolina20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x266b…8da2backed Svitolina21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4203729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82a0…14b3backed Sabalenka75c1,964$1,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.04580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Svitolina13c1,882$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.5430530.8%94 W · 211 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee76…e67abacked Sabalenka80c1,875$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3751586.7%13 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9106…afcbbacked Sabalenka80c1,874$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.744434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-26.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5cf…e68bbacked Svitolina12c1,800$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.95633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb64…5e23backed Sabalenka79c1,708$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.485427.8%15 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed Sabalenka80c1,661$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.972564%16 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a23…f4ffbacked Sabalenka80c1,616$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.272142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8758…01e0backed Svitolina22c1,600$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3521330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-41.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Sabalenka77c1,583$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.9912322%27 W · 96 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c0c…a55dbacked Sabalenka80c1,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30022965.9%151 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00a3…575cbacked Sabalenka80c1,494$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.838052.5%42 W · 38 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd6a…67fbbacked Svitolina19c1,441$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.51633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Svitolina21c1,430$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.325722.2%57 W · 200 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bb4…acb6backed Svitolina20c1,419$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.87356.2%41 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Sabalenka80c1,355$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2712650%13 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Sabalenka80c1,317$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.465459%386 W · 268 L-31.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Svitolina21c1,253$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.232245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa661…af49backed Sabalenka80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.0911248.2%54 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Sabalenka80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25020653.4%110 W · 96 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80a2…29cabacked Svitolina20c1,250$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Svitolina20c1,245$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.9924846%114 W · 134 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9200…1ad2backed Svitolina21c1,238$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.