Tennis · resolved market
Sabalenka vs. Svitolina: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa856f8c2d3d8286b0cd18c54974b0b2ad50a84398ce6fda8991d1a486b4a9eb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over 2.5 | 37c | 1,351$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under 2.5 | 62c | 1,137$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.71 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over 2.5 | 30c | 944.44$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.81 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…dff4backed Under 2.5 | 63c | 848.9$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cb…4d21backed Over 2.5 | 37c | 848$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 62c | 780.81$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.79 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Under 2.5 | 66c | 758.34$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.34 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over 2.5 | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Over 2.5 | 38c | 517.66$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.71 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under 2.5 | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over 2.5 | 34c | 295.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 387 | 39.3%152 W · 235 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under 2.5 | 66c | 265.88$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Over 2.5 | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…a27ebacked Under 2.5 | 67c | 254.79$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9512…e78abacked Over 2.5 | 32c | 149.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over 2.5 | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under 2.5 | 62c | 131.58$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x485d…fc8abacked Under 2.5 | 65c | 131.16$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…8b56backed Over 2.5 | 38c | 129.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Over 2.5 | 33c | 119.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under 2.5 | 51c | 106.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8127…c407backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 88.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…b346backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 85.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…a514backed Under 2.5 | 66c | 75.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over 2.5 | 33c | 72.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over 2.5 | 32c | 67.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 62.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…8e5cbacked Over 2.5 | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0250…278ebacked Under 2.5 | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over 2.5 | 34c | 34.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Under 2.5 | 76c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Over 2.5 | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…993dbacked Over 2.5 | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x828c…fb4cbacked Over 2.5 | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabalenka vs. Svitolina: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina SvitolinaSabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Svitolina: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Svitolina: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Svitolina: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Svitolina: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs SvitolinaSabalenka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.