Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Svitolina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b65e1343a79bb5a5fc90d86f5f75a8226295a4ce96b772e3c1dbc900472b0c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Svitolina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Sabalenka | 73c | 3,699$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Sabalenka | 72c | 2,176$1,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.34 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Svitolina | 27c | 1,828$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.58 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Svitolina | 27c | 1,780$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.49 | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a5…f0a8backed Svitolina | 28c | 1,429$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…7e9bbacked Svitolina | 16c | 935.8$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Svitolina | 15c | 691.37$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Svitolina | 28c | 503.14$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.88 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…e667backed Sabalenka | 76c | 425.66$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.29 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Svitolina | 15c | 402.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Sabalenka | 80c | 350$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 178 | 67.4%120 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…a2a0backed Sabalenka | 73c | 296.14$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d6…0550backed Svitolina | 20c | 292.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Svitolina | 6c | 223.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…e9d3backed Svitolina | 28c | 222.54$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Sabalenka | 80c | 202.98$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Svitolina | 26c | 144.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Svitolina | 19c | 104.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Svitolina | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Svitolina | 23c | 83.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sabalenka | 77c | 79.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Svitolina | 27c | 75.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c37…3fd1backed Sabalenka | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…6a4bbacked Sabalenka | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Svitolina | 18c | 62.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Sabalenka | 72c | 57.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Svitolina | 27c | 53.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee59backed Sabalenka | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…9218backed Sabalenka | 74c | 47.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…f87ebacked Sabalenka | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…28f4backed Sabalenka | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Sabalenka | 73c | 24.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Sabalenka | 76c | 17.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed Sabalenka | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ec…e59abacked Sabalenka | 73c | 14.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Svitolinathis page
- Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina SvitolinaSabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Svitolina: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Svitolina: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Svitolina: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Svitolina: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Svitolina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.