Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b9cfd142b849edf7a886364d9821f7e8049cf7648e97c73f05e68827f516e2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,798,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,898,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,798,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 849 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 410,968$3,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,947.95 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes | 3c | 234,286$6,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,139.83 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…02c3backed Yes | 2c | 226,844$3,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,664.01 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb014…b3fabacked Yes | 0c | 216,658$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255f…3c68backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 2c | 191,435$3,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,360 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 1c | 138,577$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.93 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 133,365$2,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,462.28 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 2c | 99,305$2,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,047.33 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…6a46backed Yes | 2c | 96,030$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.5 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes | 2c | 92,557$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.62 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…e203backed Yes | 2c | 87,355$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.09 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3305…31dabacked Yes | 9c | 68,079$6,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,019.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 2c | 66,109$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.5 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…ee81backed Yes | 1c | 62,728$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.08 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +284.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bea…c445backed Yes | 0c | 60,338$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 60,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…e335backed Yes | 2c | 59,683$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed Yes | 2c | 56,162$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.14 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…d004backed Yes | 2c | 53,957$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 2c | 50,001$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.02 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…2b4cbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb6…2124backed Yes | 3c | 49,309$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.79 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3199…fdf3backed Yes | 4c | 49,000$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes | 2c | 47,885$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.59 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdf…0ec1backed Yes | 5c | 45,444$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…6b8dbacked Yes | 2c | 44,855$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 1c | 43,504$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.2 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…6f9abacked Yes | 2c | 42,365$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed Yes | 4c | 41,376$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.6 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6e…8931backed Yes | 2c | 40,996$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.24 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…1527backed Yes | 2c | 40,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 38,888$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.32 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 1c | 34,164$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…c70ebacked Yes | 2c | 30,537$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 1c | 30,217$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.76 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 1c | 29,852$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 5c | 28,147$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.78 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…9ff1backed Yes | 1c | 27,513$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.22 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd133…972cbacked Yes | 7c | 27,415$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.88 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…bf69backed Yes | 2c | 26,812$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 2c | 26,449$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.49 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…2516backed Yes | 2c | 25,181$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d5…84d9backed Yes | 2c | 25,172$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…85c7backed Yes | 2c | 25,057$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5efe…7c87backed Yes | 2c | 24,351$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.62 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3c…7f93backed Yes | 3c | 24,090$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f4…b74cbacked Yes | 2c | 23,889$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc202…ef12backed Yes | 2c | 23,708$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…60b6backed Yes | 2c | 23,545$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.95 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…b374backed Yes | 3c | 22,478$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 1c | 22,222$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.44 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9abe…70b7backed Yes | 6c | 21,799$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…e658backed Yes | 2c | 21,528$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.61 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabe…69f6backed Yes | 1c | 21,362$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Yes | 5c | 20,195$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…34cbbacked Yes | 3c | 19,921$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd86…f2c8backed Yes | 1c | 19,334$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.69 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 5c | 19,107$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.41 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…73ddbacked Yes | 2c | 18,732$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b1…f696backed Yes | 2c | 18,315$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…605fbacked Yes | 1c | 17,065$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…640fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,750$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a3…13a7backed Yes | 1c | 16,499$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.13 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 6cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x92ab…8591backed Yes | 6c | 16,277$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 10cpaid | +873.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d82…3754backed Yes | 2c | 15,851$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Yes | 2c | 15,624$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 8cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 15,554$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.07 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 3c | 15,381$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.68 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 3c | 15,336$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.18 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 2c | 15,151$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…c93cbacked Yes | 3c | 15,145$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x69d1…a963backed Yes | 3c | 14,919$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd624…a0f8backed Yes | 6c | 14,709$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8602…2fa2backed Yes | 3c | 14,706$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…a53dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,535$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0e…6da0backed Yes | 7c | 14,329$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 3c | 13,722$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.19 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5290…efe3backed Yes | 4c | 13,600$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.56 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 4c | 13,468$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.05 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…f672backed Yes | 1c | 13,205$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…e5e9backed Yes | 4c | 13,091$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1082backed Yes | 1c | 13,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 2c | 12,768$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 1c | 12,743$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.43 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…cc58backed Yes | 2c | 12,577$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ff…6e66backed Yes | 2c | 12,571$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 12,550$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.33 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc31…7e2bbacked Yes | 1c | 12,300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d4…6d99backed Yes | 4c | 12,223$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f52…9fbabacked Yes | 1c | 12,107$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.97 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes | 1c | 12,017$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.26 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…e223backed Yes | 2c | 11,875$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed Yes | 2c | 11,861$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.63 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda06…75d9backed Yes | 4c | 11,721$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…6110backed Yes | 2c | 11,702$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3973…28ebbacked Yes | 4c | 11,500$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…fb9ebacked Yes | 5c | 11,383$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570d…9917backed Yes | 3c | 11,158$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.