Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x905bd0615b38b035e60e69a46e0f185729ace5825a92f6dc39aede1d3ad31a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,542,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,792,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,542,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes | 0c | 863,809$4,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,025.42 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes | 1c | 414,557$2,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,744.95 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 1c | 298,875$1,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671.36 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 0c | 290,857$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.96 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 0c | 213,634$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.2 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes | 1c | 149,999$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.99 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 1c | 116,114$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.26 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 2c | 84,886$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.06 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 83,000$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…6a46backed Yes | 0c | 70,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 1c | 58,109$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.3 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 1c | 54,692$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.62 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef6…f0debacked Yes | 1c | 54,400$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes | 3c | 45,757$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 0c | 39,715$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.86 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 39,222$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.47 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6e…8931backed Yes | 1c | 37,143$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ff…5946backed Yes | 0c | 36,667$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 0c | 33,270$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.72 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…5cc3backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbb…05a8backed Yes | 3c | 29,633$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabe…69f6backed Yes | 0c | 29,256$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.02 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed Yes | 2c | 26,188$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.8 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…3408backed Yes | 1c | 25,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…cf8ebacked Yes | 1c | 24,326$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +224.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 2c | 20,290$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.63 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 20,223$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.4 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…2b5bbacked Yes | 1c | 19,754$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.22 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d82…3754backed Yes | 1c | 18,415$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 0c | 17,494$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 0c | 17,134$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 1c | 16,532$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 2c | 15,000$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648a…94cbbacked Yes | 1c | 14,400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1082backed Yes | 0c | 13,520$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d5…a42ebacked Yes | 2c | 13,214$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…bbaabacked Yes | 1c | 13,206$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1384…e5c3backed Yes | 2c | 12,804$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…69bdbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…2a75backed Yes | 0c | 11,303$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb441…888ebacked Yes | 4c | 10,925$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +90%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…32f9backed Yes | 0c | 10,782$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 1c | 10,674$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 10,110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412b…85b2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…fa25backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…80d0backed Yes | 2c | 9,973$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 20cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…c519backed Yes | 2c | 9,957$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 1c | 9,701$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…b16cbacked Yes | 3c | 9,622$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4f…07c4backed Yes | 1c | 9,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…6261backed Yes | 1c | 8,946$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3b…6a99backed Yes | 1c | 8,617$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…918dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,333$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…0669backed Yes | 0c | 8,244$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdb…9080backed Yes | 4c | 8,112$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84f…ff71backed Yes | 2c | 8,084$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2a…0bbebacked Yes | 3c | 7,876$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e6…11afbacked Yes | 3c | 7,739$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 18cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 5c | 6,105$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.2 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 2c | 6,068$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.35 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,858$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…f779backed Yes | 1c | 5,333$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…6110backed Yes | 0c | 5,264$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9234…7d9cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…8e5bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…64d8backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe03…2ba5backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e33…1466backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…ec23backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…c5d7backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…9718backed Yes | 0c | 4,950$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15a…637dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…e553backed Yes | 1c | 4,600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 2c | 4,589$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 1c | 4,571$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 0c | 4,250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9e…b97fbacked Yes | 4c | 4,056$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da9…78c4backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…714bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba7…4d1abacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 3c | 3,767$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98bf…c046backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,408$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1a…cd8fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,395$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…8e24backed Yes | 0c | 3,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…3a7fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,214$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b0…5fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 3,120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…4e63backed Yes | 2c | 3,077$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x984c…b8aabacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf404…be62backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c3…a742backed Yes | 1c | 2,917$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 2c | 2,905$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc31…7e2bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…4c04backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.