TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,542,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,792,807

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,542,348 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes0c863,809$4,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,025.422524%6 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick10cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes1c414,557$2,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,744.952218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes1c298,875$1,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.363810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes0c290,857$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.966132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes0c213,634$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.28610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes1c149,999$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.99180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes1c116,114$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.2613823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes2c84,886$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,647.06456.7%3 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c83,000$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2198817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3202…6a46backed Yes0c70,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280200%0 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes1c58,109$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.314039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes1c54,692$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.623010%3 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef6…f0debacked Yes1c54,400$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes3c45,757$1,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5451915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick6cpaid-17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes0c39,715$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.86430%0 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c39,222$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.4717111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6e…8931backed Yes1c37,143$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ff…5946backed Yes0c36,667$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes0c33,270$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.727311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x852a…5cc3backed Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbbb…05a8backed Yes3c29,633$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-58.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdabe…69f6backed Yes0c29,256$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.02270%0 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc97b…47e5backed Yes2c26,188$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.85433.3%18 W · 36 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e32…3408backed Yes1c25,000$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2252740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0cf…cf8ebacked Yes1c24,326$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+224.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes2c20,290$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.633917.9%7 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes1c20,223$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.4220%0 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58a0…2b5bbacked Yes1c19,754$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.221216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d82…3754backed Yes1c18,415$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.49812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-81.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes0c17,494$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9719119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes0c17,134$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.08720%0 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes1c16,532$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115468.7%4 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes2c15,000$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3052917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x648a…94cbbacked Yes1c14,400$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.42722.2%6 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+162.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes0c13,520$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.53611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick2cpaid-76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02d5…a42ebacked Yes2c13,214$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.58520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-52.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa47f…bbaabacked Yes1c13,206$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1384…e5c3backed Yes2c12,804$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45df…69bdbacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c5…2a75backed Yes0c11,303$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb441…888ebacked Yes4c10,925$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+90%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64f8…32f9backed Yes0c10,782$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.49440%0 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes1c10,674$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2816417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c10,110$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412b…85b2backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40140%0 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x362e…fa25backed Yes3c10,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd57d…80d0backed Yes2c9,973$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.311546.7%7 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.27per pick20cpaid+273.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x88ca…c519backed Yes2c9,957$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.56616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes1c9,701$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf74…b16cbacked Yes3c9,622$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26680%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb4f…07c4backed Yes1c9,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50230%0 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…6261backed Yes1c8,946$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+153.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3b…6a99backed Yes1c8,617$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.55205%1 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a6d…918dbacked Yes0c8,333$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce1f…0669backed Yes0c8,244$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7bdb…9080backed Yes4c8,112$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325220%0 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb84f…ff71backed Yes2c8,084$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e2a…0bbebacked Yes3c7,876$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e6…11afbacked Yes3c7,739$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick18cpaid+19.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes5c6,105$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.28515.3%13 W · 72 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes2c6,068$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.3533337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes1c5,858$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.87600%0 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x033c…f779backed Yes1c5,333$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba4c…6110backed Yes0c5,264$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22254%1 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-69.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9234…7d9cbacked Yes0c5,100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7002…8e5bbacked Yes0c5,100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ddd…64d8backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe03…2ba5backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e33…1466backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd74d…ebdfbacked Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25160%0 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eeb…ec23backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b5…c5d7backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes2c5,000$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0715232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa71d…9718backed Yes0c4,950$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc15a…637dbacked Yes0c4,900$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7cc…e553backed Yes1c4,600$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked Yes2c4,589$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.436142.6%26 W · 35 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+136.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes1c4,571$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327027.1%19 W · 51 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes0c4,250$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175829.3%17 W · 41 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e9e…b97fbacked Yes4c4,056$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8950%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7da9…78c4backed Yes1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid-47.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x749f…714bbacked Yes3c4,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba7…4d1abacked Yes0c4,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes3c3,767$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.63827.3%6 W · 76 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-79.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98bf…c046backed Yes2c3,500$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5166.3%1 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-84.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes1c3,408$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.497540%30 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c1a…cd8fbacked Yes2c3,395$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x978e…8e24backed Yes0c3,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13567.1%4 W · 52 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+99.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8db…3a7fbacked Yes0c3,214$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a58…dd44backed Yes1c3,204$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.26424.8%2 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+137.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b0…5fbdbacked Yes0c3,120$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f7d…4e63backed Yes2c3,077$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5380%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12450%0 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x984c…b8aabacked Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf404…be62backed Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9c3…a742backed Yes1c2,917$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35358.6%3 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes2c2,905$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9412.4%1 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc31…7e2bbacked Yes1c2,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-90.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fb5…4c04backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.