TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x05c3…3f7f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
90
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 50 out of 100 (0.00 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 50 out of 100; worst NHL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT468.7%4 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$251
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will France strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$469.6
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$253.1
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$858Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$858.12
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$67
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$10,641Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+179.1%+$19,057
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$65
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+1,721.9%+$1,685.38
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$351.09
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$38.84
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$420
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$35
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$190
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$100
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$115
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-73.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Illinois State Redbirdsbacked Kent State Golden Flashes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.97
Navy Midshipmen vs. Wake Forest Demon Deaconsbacked Navy Midshipmen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.97
Utah Valley Wolverines vs. Utah Tech Trailblazersbacked Utah Tech Trailblazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.95
Elon Phoenix vs. William & Mary Tribebacked Elon Phoenix · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$39.87
Georgia Southern Eagles vs. South Alabama Jaguarsbacked Georgia Southern Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+455.6%+$226.6
Howard Bison vs. Norfolk State Spartansbacked Norfolk State Spartans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$19.97
Eastern Illinois Panthers vs. UT Martin Skyhawksbacked Eastern Illinois Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$49.88
Colorado State Rams vs. New Mexico Lobosbacked New Mexico Lobos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$17.32
Little Rock Trojans vs. Lindenwood Lionsbacked Little Rock Trojans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$32.77
Florida State Seminoles vs. Pittsburgh Panthersbacked Pittsburgh Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$14.97
California Golden Bears vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jacketsbacked Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$19.95
Coppin State Eagles vs. Howard Bisonbacked Coppin State Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$49.93
Florida International Golden Panthers vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogsbacked Louisiana Tech Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$70.66
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Kansas Jayhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$49.78
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Georgia Bulldogsbacked South Carolina Gamecocks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$30.94
Utah Utes vs. Arizona State Sun Devilsbacked Utah Utes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$24.32
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Saint Mary's Gaelsbacked Santa Clara Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$94.73
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon Ducksbacked Wisconsin Badgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$17.65
San Diego Toreros vs. Oregon State Beaversbacked San Diego Toreros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$68.72
LSU Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebelsbacked Ole Miss Rebels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$15.05
Central Arkansas Bears vs. Austin Peay Governorsbacked Austin Peay Governors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$14.97
All 21 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT140%0 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Warriors vs. Celticsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Pistons vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Mavericks vs. Pelicansbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Jazz vs. Bucksbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$126
Pistons vs. Spursbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Nets vs. Heatbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Mavericks vs. Magicbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Celtics vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$60.77
Cavaliers vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Kings vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20.98
Celtics vs. Nuggetsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$82
Cavaliers vs. Bucksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$39.8
Spurs vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Thunder vs. Pistonsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$27
All 14 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.