Middle East · resolved market
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f40e6befbf9e627be187bcaf57be159a53000c0df1dadedb730fdfc89847936
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $582,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $518,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $582,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5935…9c0ebacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed No | 2c | 38,590$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.51 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b9…d898backed No | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…968cbacked No | 0c | 27,250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95df…dfd9backed No | 0c | 15,080$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 10,610$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.62 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 7c | 10,323$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.22 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 5cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…6562backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x378d…a852backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…0ab9backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…c041backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed No | 6c | 9,938$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.24 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 4c | 9,392$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 8,950$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 3c | 8,230$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.55 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 5c | 7,000$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 3c | 6,324$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.05 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 6,187$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.63 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 4c | 6,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…9725backed No | 1c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 4c | 4,251$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.84 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed No | 3c | 4,099$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.07 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 3c | 3,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 6c | 2,000$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed No | 4c | 1,907$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 4c | 1,809$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked No | 4c | 1,678$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 9c | 1,458$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 9c | 1,449$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.41 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 1c | 1,271$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 1,126$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 3c | 1,100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 8c | 1,060$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 5c | 1,048$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 1,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked No | 11c | 979.69$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.06 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed No | 4c | 939.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…afcfbacked No | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 4c | 835.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb48…9c83backed No | 4c | 754.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 4c | 640.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 12c | 626.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade3…3b44backed No | 3c | 578.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…dec4backed No | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 7c | 499.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 4c | 499.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…4c72backed No | 4c | 465.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xed11…10bebacked No | 12c | 449.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 6c | 438.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 131 | 6.1%8 W · 123 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked No | 8c | 388$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8019…d74dbacked No | 9c | 366.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7f…f922backed No | 7c | 359.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…e5fcbacked No | 6c | 325.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…ac4ebacked No | 6c | 305.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…494bbacked No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ce…0716backed No | 5c | 282.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 4c | 276$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 5c | 255.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 13c | 239.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed No | 6c | 230$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked No | 9c | 224.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed No | 6c | 221.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 10c | 192.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…6fa5backed No | 8c | 182.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 57c | 169.46$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed No | 12c | 101$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 63c | 93.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb5…69d3backed Yes | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ea…5843backed Yes | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?this page
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No won
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes won
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.