Middle East · resolved market
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46dd571d8c32bd58dcc553ae6c2a1ae8dda6d1ec69943bc0f771ea5c35132ca5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,247,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,330,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,247,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 528 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 35c | 39,421$13,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,743.12 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked No | 0c | 38,190$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 38c | 37,259$13,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,268.76 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 11c | 26,836$3,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,074.72 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 1c | 26,117$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.12 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c9…36fcbacked No | 67c | 20,920$14,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,046.78 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed No | 2c | 20,325$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.92 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 6c | 20,000$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.26 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…ac4ebacked Yes | 63c | 19,364$12,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,233.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed Yes | 40c | 19,318$7,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,620.38 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 67c | 17,712$11,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,844.36 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 0c | 17,236$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9c…dd8bbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320e…7c82backed No | 0c | 14,295$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f07…09b4backed No | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…42d7backed No | 0c | 13,673$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 0c | 13,105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +62%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x109d…b101backed No | 0c | 11,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 25c | 10,930$2,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,719.24 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…e03cbacked Yes | 36c | 10,000$3,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,444.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899b…7919backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…9c0ebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 50c | 9,536$4,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,812.24 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed Yes | 56c | 8,779$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,879.3 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…dea6backed No | 67c | 8,542$5,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,711.34 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x757a…842bbacked No | 66c | 7,487$4,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,973.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 29c | 6,991$2,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,952.34 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 51c | 6,217$3,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,163.81 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 51c | 5,788$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940.23 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked Yes | 45c | 5,776$2,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,179.35 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 60c | 5,709$3,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,289.33 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…da96backed Yes | 40c | 5,188$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,117.64 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 35c | 5,151$1,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,347.47 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed Yes | 41c | 5,098$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,012.52 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 16c | 4,895$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,126.38 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 40c | 4,584$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750.76 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x515e…8309backed No | 38c | 4,568$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.91 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812b…14d0backed Yes | 30c | 4,250$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,960.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 51c | 4,208$2,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062.78 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…2ad4backed No | 2c | 3,596$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 3,499$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.52 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 42c | 3,361$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,955.19 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked No | 20c | 3,212$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.92 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked No | 63c | 3,206$2,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,031.34 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed Yes | 58c | 3,187$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.4 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 34c | 3,088$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,038.04 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 30c | 3,026$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.32 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 29c | 3,000$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.98 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 66c | 2,952$1,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.82 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 17c | 2,906$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.09 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes | 36c | 2,843$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,826.12 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…dc97backed No | 2c | 2,832$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 38c | 2,745$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.66 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed No | 71c | 2,678$1,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,897.86 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…5dfebacked Yes | 64c | 2,617$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 48c | 2,459$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.54 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…5d15backed Yes | 31c | 2,448$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.57 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 40c | 2,268$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.6 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 16c | 2,235$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.15 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 34c | 2,186$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.09 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 49c | 2,150$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.5 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 42c | 2,092$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.83 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked Yes | 41c | 2,008$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.28 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 49c | 2,000$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…baecbacked Yes | 49c | 2,000$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed Yes | 35c | 1,900$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.45 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 21c | 1,867$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.53 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 70c | 1,866$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.51 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed No | 66c | 1,807$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.49 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…928fbacked No | 61c | 1,705$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.06 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 26c | 1,650$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.04 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9950…6d78backed Yes | 37c | 1,627$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.34 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 28c | 1,527$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.02 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 48c | 1,513$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.24 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b3…47b6backed No | 17c | 1,503$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 72c | 1,481$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.61 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked No | 1c | 1,446$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked No | 61c | 1,436$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.88 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x405d…025ebacked Yes | 44c | 1,400$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.52 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…3611backed No | 62c | 1,396$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Yes | 52c | 1,338$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…aa36backed No | 45c | 1,274$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.71 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked No | 60c | 1,261$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.84 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…aa34backed Yes | 36c | 1,200$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 35c | 1,200$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 70c | 1,168$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.76 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed No | 17c | 1,168$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.7 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd087…b390backed Yes | 71c | 1,125$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 15c | 1,118$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.34 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 37c | 1,094$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.48 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed Yes | 68c | 1,094$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.21 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 61c | 1,084$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.73 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 47c | 1,071$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.79 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 22c | 1,033$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.33 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…0b9cbacked No | 15c | 1,026$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.02 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 31c | 1,022$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.51 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed No | 59c | 1,022$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?this page
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No won
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Yes won
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.