Middle East · resolved market
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa40932295e57674d1988b9ec901f86e0a472c26e2d7baf232a84a13100708b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,579,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,633,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,579,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 480 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x138f…657ebacked Yes | 0c | 973,000$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…cda0backed Yes | 0c | 255,640$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…89f1backed Yes | 0c | 167,282$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.74 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…3683backed Yes | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +656.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 79,833$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed Yes | 25c | 54,349$13,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,835.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…e58fbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…e5fcbacked Yes | 2c | 35,922$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.45 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 10c | 34,779$3,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,401.91 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515e…8309backed No | 59c | 30,116$17,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,351.37 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 29,910$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 12c | 27,338$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,299.89 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 64c | 27,310$17,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,870.51 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 74c | 26,760$19,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,962.02 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 2c | 26,164$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.55 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…9402backed Yes | 0c | 25,516$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 25c | 24,804$6,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,224.17 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 23,450$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.35 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed Yes | 32c | 23,060$7,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,349.58 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…7c9ebacked Yes | 6c | 20,810$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 22c | 20,177$4,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,382.15 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…81e8backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 28c | 19,358$5,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,429.57 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…ac4ebacked No | 49c | 18,613$9,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,458.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked No | 19c | 15,830$2,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,859.57 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d5…10a6backed Yes | 4c | 15,689$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…3435backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 25c | 13,335$3,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,367.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2598…40a3backed Yes | 32c | 12,048$3,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,826.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…725abacked Yes | 4c | 11,625$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.5 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 1c | 11,400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.8 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320e…7c82backed Yes | 1c | 11,290$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked Yes | 11c | 10,998$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.44 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…9b13backed Yes | 3c | 10,170$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.71 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x899b…7919backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…71c8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe96b…a737backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…dea6backed No | 70c | 9,743$6,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,961.25 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 62c | 9,420$5,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,855.91 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…da96backed Yes | 3c | 9,278$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.44 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 39c | 8,399$3,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,277.59 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff4…ca6abacked Yes | 0c | 8,292$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 16c | 8,018$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.65 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…5d15backed Yes | 3c | 7,021$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.69 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 4c | 6,800$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.2 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 6,791$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.24 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 74c | 6,440$4,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,646.78 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 24c | 6,369$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.64 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 35c | 6,000$2,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,083.8 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked Yes | 56c | 5,842$3,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,247.06 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 77c | 5,835$4,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.76 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 50c | 5,723$2,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,861.01 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19cc…c4fdbacked Yes | 22c | 5,516$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 13c | 5,454$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.43 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 0c | 5,022$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 35c | 5,016$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.37 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed Yes | 4c | 4,860$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.57 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +79%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…928fbacked No | 80c | 4,837$3,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 24c | 4,761$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.95 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 32c | 4,631$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.36 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 57c | 4,222$2,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.11 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 41c | 4,216$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,736.4 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 16c | 4,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.99 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x812b…14d0backed Yes | 9c | 3,900$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 16c | 3,883$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.28 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 62c | 3,810$2,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,362.86 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd00f…1ba0backed No | 60c | 3,707$2,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 3,707$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 12c | 3,585$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.49 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 18c | 3,548$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.64 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 5c | 3,521$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.64 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…5b73backed No | 68c | 3,454$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.01 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6547…82b3backed Yes | 10c | 3,443$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 14c | 3,304$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.14 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21eb…a9fdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,291$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 33c | 3,231$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.24 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 71c | 3,136$2,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.36 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 52c | 3,021$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,459.14 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b56…715ebacked No | 76c | 3,000$2,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.43 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 26c | 3,000$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,920$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…7311backed Yes | 3c | 2,554$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed Yes | 24c | 2,554$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 2,534$1,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.28 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c9…1c13backed Yes | 8c | 2,447$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.33 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 2,420$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 24c | 2,350$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda8…6ca8backed Yes | 8c | 2,257$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 17c | 2,233$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 2,062$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.17 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked No | 74c | 2,026$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.96 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…5dfebacked No | 62c | 2,000$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e69…7f76backed Yes | 74c | 1,999$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 43c | 1,914$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.79 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 1,889$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.83 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 12c | 1,888$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.46 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? this page
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes won
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Yes won
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.