TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6b02…e5fc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
85
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Tweets, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 52 out of 100; worst Commodities at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT6013.3%8 W · 52 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 60 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$66
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$115
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$97
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$581Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$581
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$146
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$73
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$171.57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$168
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.9
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$551Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$551
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$726Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$726.45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$675Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$675
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$2,959Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,958.97
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$3,319Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+187.2%+$6,212.01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+121.6%+$1,702.96
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$515Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$514.96
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$315
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$124
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,027Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+84.8%+$870.55
Showing 25 of 60 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+521.1%+$823.05
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,960Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,959.79
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.54
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.22
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$254.7
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+131.2%+$26.24
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+34.7%+$6.59
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.6
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,725Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,724.66
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$742Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$741.63
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$649Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$648.54
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+111.3%+$111.32
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+63.1%+$47.31
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$85
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.44
All 18 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$10.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.34
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.