TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$261,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$266,594

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,900 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfa39…977fbacked No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No0c13,100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.252742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No0c12,690$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.69757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+108.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No0c12,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2222627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101332.3%3 W · 130 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked No14c7,234$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.757631.6%24 W · 52 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+70%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7164…64a7backed No2c4,458$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcf9…9b13backed No1c3,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-82.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c2,964$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.051,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked No20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50015232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No15c2,472$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.7436227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes79c2,408$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.6434440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No13c2,302$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.5912138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x37db…dff4backed No24c2,075$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49850%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No18c2,000$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35326429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb9…9725backed No14c1,860$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.625335.8%19 W · 34 L+7.0wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+28.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b02…e5fcbacked No20c1,594$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3156013.3%8 W · 52 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x396f…7f78backed No10c1,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504738.3%18 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde8f…8fd8backed No17c1,425$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.813250%16 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No8c1,200$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4842311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed Yes78c1,152$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.588616.3%14 W · 72 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5d7…4952backed No13c1,098$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1426956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked No30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30016125.5%41 W · 120 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20013829%40 W · 98 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+7.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa429…368abacked Yes78c1,000$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2185646.4%26 W · 30 L-11.4wins-0.20per pick67cpaid-34.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed No9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9011038.2%42 W · 68 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No14c999.98$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.56262.9%39 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes73c993.16$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.2842120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c66…44f3backed No15c950$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.53531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb698…976abacked No15c925.18$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1365712.3%7 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd5…afcfbacked No11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No18c902.62$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.2751138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed No4c883.96$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.423212.5%4 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-43.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa289…d95cbacked No22c883.33$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902763%17 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+31.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No14c863.54$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0135921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No17c847.31$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1640433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e6f…eb72backed No12c816.81$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.941060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8927…44a6backed No24c669.57$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4840%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked No4c620.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.87527.7%4 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No9c608.59$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.774195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes76c600$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14417129.2%50 W · 121 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes79c578.54$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.425332.1%17 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10e1…aa05backed No18c560.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x789e…3bb1backed No15c536.7$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No18c524.97$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0221831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes79c505.07$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0724149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No9c500$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4834143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-58.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2637…26e1backed No13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.56338.1%24 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked No17c496.98$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.564553.3%24 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa020…d807backed No25c473.71$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1184119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No10c447.21$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.574625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed Yes76c411.66$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.83647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No25c404.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009739.2%38 W · 59 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+46.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No26c400$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6115436.4%56 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…494bbacked No15c380$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-78.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No23c379.44$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.154240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed No10c369.53$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3812629.4%37 W · 89 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No15c350.22$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3634432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8706…0587backed No17c344.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3510555.2%58 W · 47 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked No16c340.67$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.034812.5%6 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No11c336.45$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4818135.9%65 W · 116 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed No24c334.11$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.752020%4 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-56.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb03…5d15backed Yes78c314.98$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.35639.3%22 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-25.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes80c313.86$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9512362.6%77 W · 46 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No18c301.92$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.468739.1%34 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes77c300$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.810737.4%40 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7980…feadbacked Yes78c299.99$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No11c291.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0235631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No5c281.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.432036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5670…2b9cbacked No11c272.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305939%23 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed No21c270.3$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.963839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No24c255$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2529653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb48…9c83backed No16c247.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes74c244.72$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7322262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4f40…a69cbacked No18c237.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.13955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No15c236.6$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9612638.1%48 W · 78 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed Yes78c224.95$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3811850%59 W · 59 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked No20c222$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.410928.4%31 W · 78 L-15.2wins-0.14per pick42cpaid+12.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed No18c216.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.514715%22 W · 125 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaee1…3ceabacked No23c210.75$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.154866.7%32 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e29…a4a0backed No20c207.62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.925632.1%18 W · 38 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-48.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe117…b4e7backed No18c204.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.613040%12 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed Yes79c201.61$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6118246.2%84 W · 98 L-15.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No8c201.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.558927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5519…1986backed No11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+255.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9950…6d78backed Yes80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20b3…d24cbacked Yes75c199.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked No12c192.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.131316.1%8 W · 123 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-63.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2712…eb71backed No27c186.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505540%22 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb151…1ab0backed No20c184.29$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacc…2eacbacked No11c179.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No16c167.46$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4739621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed No24c158.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.527067.1%47 W · 23 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x03b3…9a65backed No15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c94…2e06backed No10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155962.7%37 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22b0…ef31backed No16c140.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.569250%46 W · 46 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5297…7b99backed No15c140.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.037613.2%10 W · 66 L-11.1wins-0.15per pick28cpaid+123.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed No23c130.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309550.5%48 W · 47 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9617…ad6cbacked No24c126.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.