TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeec5…b6fe

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
480
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 61 out of 100; worst Movies at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT12362.6%77 W · 46 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 123 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$785Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$784.99
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.9
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$265.36
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+25%+$2.94
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+136%+$113.77
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+149.6%+$81.9
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$428Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+34.9%+$149.45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$897Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+83.5%+$748.45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,565Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+29%+$454.31
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,049.66
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+349.8%+$854.79
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$37
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+84.9%+$208.56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$658Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$632.19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$4,261Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,260.74
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$7,193Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+99.1%+$7,126.7
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$63.95
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$698Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+56.8%+$396.45
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$428Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$193.76
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,780Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+41.3%+$735.74
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$309.96
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.36
Showing 25 of 123 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT8856.8%50 W · 38 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 88 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+411.8%+$928.22
Will LeBron's next contract average $15M-$50M per year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,095Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+25.9%+$283.07
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.69
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,625Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,624.76
Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+34.6%+$77.17
Will LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$965Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+26%+$251.06
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$221.19
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$5,769Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+25.9%+$1,497.13
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$3,626Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+84.1%+$3,047.94
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+150%+$43.5
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$97
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$338.34
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$27.5
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+37.1%+$79.01
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+57%+$53.03
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.65
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$35.54
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+37%+$18.49
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,787Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+41.8%+$1,583.75
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$466Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$123.72
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.38
Spread: Thunder (-16.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$97
Showing 25 of 88 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT4257.1%24 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+60.2%+$65.63
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$25.25
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$9.1
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+45.5%+$6.25
Mexico vs. England: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$277.99
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$392Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$122.17
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+43.8%+$16.75
Switzerland vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,053Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$496.5
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$53
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$105
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$48
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Netherlands · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.8
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$63
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+30.2%+$12.08
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$980Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$980.39
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT4163.4%26 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,629Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$1,192.4
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$25,306Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+27.5%+$6,967.46
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15,511Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15,511.29
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$110
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+91.2%+$247.12
Trump out as President by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.9
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,798Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+26.4%+$474.08
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+47.5%+$47.5
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,688Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+45.8%+$772.86
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+61.4%+$76.12
Will TikTok be banned in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37.7%+$69.85
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$716Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.6%+$240.86
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+58.6%+$13.98
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+94.2%+$158.33
Will there be another US government shutdown by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+27.3%+$19.6
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$740Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+42.5%+$314.5
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$77.5
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+65%+$64.95
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+35.1%+$26
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$6,576Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+25.5%+$1,678.95
Will the Government shutdown end by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$45
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$355.94
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+30.5%+$24.31
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+41.1%+$13.35
Kilmar Abrego Garcia deported by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$5
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT2556%14 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.78
Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.27
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.1
Will Trump and Putin not meet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$23.87
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.78
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$650
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$80
Will China join the Board of Peace?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+31%+$64.6
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$331Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+51.1%+$169
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$1,176.2
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+36.8%+$14.16
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$32
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$84.33
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+91.5%+$176.59
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$292Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+44.5%+$129.94
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$226.02
Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?backed Gaza · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+54.7%+$82.33
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$843Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+28.8%+$242.72
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$6
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+28.5%+$12.95
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+54.2%+$7.03
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.52
India agrees to reduce purchases Russian oil by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+28.8%+$61.53
All 25 picks, newest first.
Commoditieslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT2462.5%15 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of August 10 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.49
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of August 10 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+39.8%+$56.9
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$768Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$768
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.72
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,586Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$487.36
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,173Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$347.53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$6,736Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+79.3%+$5,339.44
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.96
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+56.1%+$96.15
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.52
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$4.72
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$809Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+72.1%+$583.91
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+25%+$8
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.17
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.3
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$431Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+25.4%+$109.31
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+27.8%+$82.52
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,893Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,893.39
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 6?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+26.8%+$8.95
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,976Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+33.2%+$657.07
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,179Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$1,179.23
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,826Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25.1%+$457.91
All 24 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x China tariff agreement by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.81
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$5,374Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,373.66
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,186.67
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$4,042Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+36.8%+$1,486.87
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$843Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+31.5%+$265.53
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$13.57
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+62.3%+$42.25
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$990Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+28.6%+$283.24
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$671Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+115.1%+$771.81
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+29.1%+$32.22
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$335Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$164.99
Will Elon Musk attend Trump’s Xi summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$421.9
Will any of Trump’s sons attend Trump’s Xi summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+25%+$21.15
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.17
Will DeepSeek V4 be released on or prior to April 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.09
DeepSeek V4 released by April 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$124
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$202.1
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,304Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$906.8
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,332Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,331.96
Will Vanke default on debt by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+30.8%+$44.54
Trump x Xi talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+62.1%+$134.92
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+70.9%+$8.3
All 22 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT1947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,560Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+53.1%+$828.1
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$109.2
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+150%+$120
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$631Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+102.7%+$648.49
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$712Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$711.66
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$776Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$776.27
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.98
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$554Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$145.52
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.49
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$492Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+46%+$226.43
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$469Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$469.12
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$639Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$639.44
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,109Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+71.5%+$793.09
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$30.6
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$884Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+58.4%+$516.26
North Korea x South Korea military clash by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$85
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.9
All 19 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT1838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.94
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.89
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.65
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,688Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$601.9
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.02
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$413Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$412.96
Will Zootopia 2 be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$396Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$395.66
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$12.05
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+31.8%+$21.57
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$83.04
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,163Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+58.5%+$1,266.22
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$43.98
Will "Man Vs Baby" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$4,263Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$4,262.86
Will "Man Vs Baby" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,279Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$1,278.79
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$503Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+27.2%+$136.94
Will "Stranger Things" have 4+ seasons in Netflix's top 5 this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$418Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+37.9%+$158.51
Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $14-16m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT+26.1%+$13.38
All 18 picks, newest first.
Weatherlast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Typhoon Dolphin be a "Typhoon" at Japan landfall?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.1
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+26%+$38.72
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.26
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.48
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+49.1%+$13.84
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.58
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$248.55
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.26
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.01
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+97%+$64
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,369Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+49.4%+$676.49
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,630Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+57.4%+$1,508.81
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+33.1%+$83.59
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$241.07
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+53.2%+$184.32
Will a hurricane form by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+178.8%+$98.81
All 16 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick55cpaid+30.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+100%+$66.33
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+35%+$63.2
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$60.5
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.05
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.3
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$24.08
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+90.7%+$32.14
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$694Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+36.2%+$251.05
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$102.59
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$59
Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$709Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+28.4%+$201.46
Will iPhone 17 cost more than $800?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+76.2%+$30.59
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$817Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+25.7%+$210.19
All 13 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT1291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.8wins+0.31per pick60cpaid+118.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,077Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$286.37
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$52.52
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+26.8%+$77.78
Will Donald Trump say "Maria" or "Corina" or "Machado" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+122.8%+$61.8
Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+58.7%+$7.4
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$72
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+51.5%+$30.6
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$394Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+28.9%+$113.88
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+750.6%+$286.77
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+51.6%+$148.7
Will Trump say "World Cup" this week? (December 22 - 28)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+30.8%+$11.55
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+316.7%+$180.68
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.34
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.06
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$24.71
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,043Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+27.2%+$283.87
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,788Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+26.6%+$1,007.66
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+33.3%+$3.64
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+26.2%+$71.81
Bank of England rate cut in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$104.8
All 8 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+50.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+95.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Olympics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+100.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$19.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+56.3%+$7.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Aug 28, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Euro Basket: Georgia vs Spainbacked Georgia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+43.7%+$7.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Musiclast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$213.32
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.