Commodities · resolved market
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c4647c26f80117304be0ca52e261d178bc8d1a1f8fe7145c411235ecd11686c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $201,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $195,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 9,970$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.83 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 9,010$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.6 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 1c | 8,028$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 2c | 6,604$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 4,328$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.35 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 2,638$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.79 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,541$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 3c | 2,416$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 3c | 2,207$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 5c | 2,071$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…0281backed Yes | 5c | 2,017$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 1c | 1,785$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c3…1d43backed Yes | 3c | 1,691$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,596$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,442$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0528…ca3fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,391$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 3c | 1,380$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 3c | 1,364$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,362$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 4c | 1,243$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 1,222$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,126$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d35…5768backed Yes | 5c | 1,066$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 3c | 1,025$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 2c | 1,009$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,002$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 4c | 937.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04ac…99f6backed Yes | 4c | 900.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92f…20b2backed Yes | 17c | 756.91$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…d6cfbacked Yes | 4c | 718.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7c…f4f5backed Yes | 4c | 704.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 691.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 53 | 0%0 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…82e1backed Yes | 3c | 670.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0854…7cafbacked Yes | 3c | 657$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 4c | 637.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 633.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…0a93backed Yes | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 3c | 590.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a5…1e04backed Yes | 3c | 582.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 5c | 571.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 3c | 513$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 512.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 4c | 505.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 3c | 479.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…1204backed Yes | 3c | 415$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa818…a627backed Yes | 4c | 405$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaf…e197backed Yes | 3c | 405$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…4bafbacked Yes | 4c | 386$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 363.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Yes | 7c | 360$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…400ebacked Yes | 4c | 349$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ef…c618backed Yes | 4c | 326$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Yes | 4c | 309.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…680dbacked Yes | 4c | 250.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…b04bbacked Yes | 19c | 79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…306bbacked Yes | 19c | 72.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 15c | 66.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a1…11e4backed No | 77c | 38.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.