Commodities · resolved market
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x325d0ee18895109bd0e6127dea6c589e2644b1635a8b9e7f5c7909378a51ad5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $308,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $280,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 4,551$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,422$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.62 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4961…be9abacked Yes | 10c | 3,109$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 1c | 2,751$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9b…2e38backed Yes | 6c | 2,283$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedca…a9a5backed Yes | 6c | 2,269$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6e57backed Yes | 6c | 2,224$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 2c | 2,110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,097$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…5e61backed Yes | 6c | 2,032$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c1…944cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,023$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 1,975$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845d…957fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,911$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…d9f3backed Yes | 6c | 1,855$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,757$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb135…a9c1backed Yes | 6c | 1,731$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 3c | 1,730$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 1,727$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…28ffbacked Yes | 6c | 1,717$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 5c | 1,585$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef7…0b96backed Yes | 6c | 1,578$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5b…e9e4backed Yes | 2c | 1,418$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 1c | 1,307$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdc…2e6ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,306$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,293$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…b7c6backed Yes | 6c | 1,293$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,245$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e67…f256backed Yes | 6c | 1,234$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…0d5fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,204$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…087bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,170$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9208…7c32backed Yes | 6c | 1,165$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,142$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…39eebacked Yes | 8c | 1,094$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e26…bd63backed Yes | 9c | 1,070$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c53…2217backed Yes | 9c | 1,040$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 1,038$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a6…e9cabacked Yes | 9c | 1,038$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9460…7b3cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,033$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…bcd4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…3db7backed Yes | 10c | 998$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 2c | 997.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17d…1c73backed Yes | 2c | 996.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 982.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,038 | 9.2%96 W · 942 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a6…c250backed Yes | 6c | 967$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0854…7cafbacked Yes | 3c | 966.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 958.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 1c | 951.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 198 | 35.9%71 W · 127 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5909…24debacked Yes | 6c | 939$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeae…92d8backed Yes | 6c | 937$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…85cebacked Yes | 6c | 932$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x572c…6fe5backed Yes | 1c | 932$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2852…ffb7backed Yes | 1c | 928$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588e…bfcfbacked Yes | 1c | 925$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ed…2082backed Yes | 1c | 922$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 4c | 919.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9b…e95ebacked Yes | 6c | 908$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a32…7c20backed Yes | 1c | 907$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…c8b4backed Yes | 6c | 901$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…10eebacked Yes | 12c | 897$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe29…1201backed Yes | 9c | 890$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6110…9a65backed Yes | 6c | 890$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca7…ef13backed Yes | 1c | 872$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71b…0c30backed Yes | 6c | 872$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ee…b670backed Yes | 6c | 861$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 2c | 850$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…4bafbacked Yes | 6c | 849$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…c64cbacked Yes | 6c | 841$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff5…4778backed Yes | 6c | 837$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…3f66backed Yes | 6c | 832$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…9fe1backed Yes | 6c | 826$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ed…0ee0backed Yes | 12c | 816$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…db0dbacked Yes | 6c | 804$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 1c | 803$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 3c | 790$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c7…c51bbacked Yes | 6c | 787$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e2…7786backed Yes | 6c | 769$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…0631backed Yes | 6c | 761$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…06fbbacked Yes | 6c | 759$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x677c…4321backed Yes | 1c | 758$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf029…3d82backed Yes | 6c | 750$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0db…6224backed Yes | 6c | 726$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb17…350dbacked Yes | 6c | 712$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc402…586cbacked Yes | 2c | 703$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd5…ce38backed Yes | 2c | 703$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…b50ebacked Yes | 12c | 695$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 688.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e2…ecc3backed Yes | 6c | 664$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac2a…54eabacked Yes | 6c | 664$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…dfeebacked Yes | 6c | 662$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 635.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c7…fd0ebacked Yes | 6c | 633$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6893…5905backed Yes | 6c | 623$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…29d4backed Yes | 6c | 619$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…9692backed Yes | 6c | 619$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…fcf7backed Yes | 6c | 604$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 602.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0810…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 581$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…7211backed Yes | 6c | 571$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.