Commodities · resolved market
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bf2d7d344b89a434bba5388eca327bdc5267f0e053f6bc63d75534296605b89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $926,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,018,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $926,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 507 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ebf…5bfabacked No | 18c | 56,078$10,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,068.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 6c | 34,576$2,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,141.92 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 4c | 24,189$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.55 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 20c | 20,959$4,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,114.11 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5273…b684backed No | 1c | 18,408$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…cbddbacked No | 1c | 14,171$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 1c | 10,268$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.26 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 1c | 9,754$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 26c | 9,647$2,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,123.18 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 4c | 9,073$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 1c | 8,755$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…2170backed No | 1c | 8,289$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed No | 2c | 8,172$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.18 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd389…8378backed No | 22c | 7,719$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked No | 5c | 7,545$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.78 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 7,342$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 1c | 6,914$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed No | 5c | 6,629$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.51 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe258…d084backed No | 80c | 6,280$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…de5ebacked Yes | 35c | 6,243$2,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,063.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed No | 14c | 5,898$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 5,391$4,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,210.35 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x943c…1d17backed No | 65c | 5,367$3,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,465.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…e9ebbacked No | 10c | 5,168$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.07 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 4cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb605…0e26backed Yes | 22c | 4,877$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,827.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +364.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 63c | 4,718$2,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,731.52 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5148…cd81backed No | 22c | 4,135$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7003…dfd3backed No | 1c | 4,042$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 73c | 4,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,939.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 24c | 3,837$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,925.21 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 3c | 3,640$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 77c | 3,195$2,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,467.65 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43fb…5f89backed Yes | 16c | 3,176$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,676.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 20c | 3,032$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.40per pick | 24cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 42c | 3,002$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.64 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 4c | 3,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…c3a4backed Yes | 22c | 2,969$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,323.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +359.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 57c | 2,801$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.29 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…741cbacked No | 27c | 2,775$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…e8b3backed Yes | 27c | 2,686$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,974.5 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 28c | 2,666$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.06 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 17c | 2,573$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134.15 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 22c | 2,559$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,996.05 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 15c | 2,517$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.82 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -68%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…aaddbacked No | 37c | 2,504$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Yes | 27c | 2,500$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,825 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 17c | 2,425$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.92 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed No | 74c | 2,384$1,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 36c | 2,379$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.14 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…7839backed No | 8c | 2,282$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…cf1dbacked No | 7c | 2,214$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d29…a996backed No | 1c | 2,213$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8076…fcbfbacked No | 16c | 2,163$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x323a…876fbacked No | 57c | 2,144$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 35c | 2,060$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.87 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…8145backed Yes | 25c | 2,015$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +303.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 9c | 2,000$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafc0…5087backed Yes | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.99 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked No | 20c | 1,780$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.43 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed No | 15c | 1,777$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed No | 3c | 1,756$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +7.2wins | +0.32per pick | 42cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 3c | 1,741$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd31…2bb9backed No | 1c | 1,728$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…6108backed No | 59c | 1,686$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…cfeebacked Yes | 30c | 1,671$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08d…0af8backed No | 7c | 1,512$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 75c | 1,504$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.58 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,500$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed No | 73c | 1,415$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 1c | 1,414$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 19c | 1,402$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.24 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 21c | 1,401$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.7 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 22c | 1,362$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.63 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 25c | 1,316$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.42 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 17c | 1,304$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.87 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 36c | 1,301$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 73c | 1,297$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.43 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,270$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.11 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…d013backed Yes | 24c | 1,263$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…71c5backed Yes | 38c | 1,244$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 6c | 1,239$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked No | 1c | 1,220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 6c | 1,218$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ef…fcf5backed Yes | 25c | 1,215$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…f42dbacked No | 59c | 1,156$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.09 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…2c67backed No | 1c | 1,155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed No | 60c | 1,147$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 28c | 1,132$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.87 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 18c | 1,131$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.95 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 73c | 1,126$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.41 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6152…4a03backed No | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 1,100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…fa78backed Yes | 80c | 1,100$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…af68backed Yes | 25c | 1,100$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…fbbfbacked No | 5c | 1,092$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…cfdabacked Yes | 13c | 1,088$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +154.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,087$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed No | 55c | 1,086$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc0…fa3dbacked No | 6c | 1,002$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.