Commodities · resolved market
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d5b2a72c8dd2742bfe72b7bfea5f6da16725623e009e0871666bec0b36dc3b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $250,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $247,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 9,966$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.22 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 4c | 6,013$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.96 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…a718backed Yes | 5c | 3,806$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,734$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,540$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.83 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf463…0450backed Yes | 5c | 3,464$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 4c | 2,857$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.07 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x055b…a9a4backed Yes | 5c | 2,799$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8893…64b7backed Yes | 4c | 2,707$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…3898backed Yes | 5c | 2,625$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6110…9a65backed Yes | 5c | 2,471$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…e56dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,327$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845d…957fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,305$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd704…469abacked Yes | 5c | 2,110$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 2,003$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.59 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…3f31backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 3c | 1,907$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…1456backed Yes | 5c | 1,621$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,603$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,428$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c1…2337backed Yes | 5c | 1,364$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 9c | 1,214$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d2…571ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,206$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…a8ebbacked Yes | 5c | 1,201$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,180$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 12c | 1,127$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb124…2da8backed Yes | 5c | 1,126$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d6…413cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,020$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…3590backed Yes | 5c | 1,020$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…31f2backed Yes | 5c | 1,018$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,009$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe100…2388backed Yes | 4c | 1,005$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0933…df42backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…d05dbacked Yes | 5c | 995$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…9bbdbacked Yes | 4c | 989$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…2d8fbacked Yes | 5c | 987$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…b5bdbacked Yes | 5c | 978.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588e…3b83backed Yes | 4c | 970$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabdb…cdd6backed Yes | 5c | 960$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…bb90backed Yes | 4c | 960$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc349…bfe5backed Yes | 4c | 953$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3897…5765backed Yes | 4c | 943$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d74…7a3ebacked Yes | 4c | 943$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…e913backed Yes | 4c | 940$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…e808backed Yes | 4c | 933$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a95…fee1backed Yes | 4c | 931$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe80a…cdccbacked Yes | 4c | 924$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…d3eebacked Yes | 4c | 910$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f2…14a6backed Yes | 4c | 910$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d6…c46cbacked Yes | 4c | 885$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ad…b698backed Yes | 4c | 885$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 5c | 822.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 3c | 800$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 797.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b8…e4d3backed Yes | 2c | 788.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9136…b7a2backed Yes | 5c | 788$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…67acbacked Yes | 5c | 785$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9460…7b3cbacked Yes | 5c | 752.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1343…e98dbacked Yes | 6c | 709.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd7…aafabacked Yes | 2c | 653.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…8803backed Yes | 3c | 649.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 611.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 80c | 599.71$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.78 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 3c | 550$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 3c | 529.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31da…3f17backed No | 77c | 504.8$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 3c | 500.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e41bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051a…bc58backed Yes | 8c | 487.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 5c | 461$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 399.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…80cebacked Yes | 5c | 396.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…259dbacked Yes | 7c | 382.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0791…d81fbacked Yes | 6c | 373.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…4d9ebacked Yes | 6c | 358$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…8281backed Yes | 4c | 352.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ad…5e85backed Yes | 4c | 349.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 5c | 335.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dd…5941backed Yes | 3c | 309.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae8…2ab3backed Yes | 5c | 308.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…d57ebacked Yes | 5c | 286.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2f…0e59backed Yes | 5c | 281.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5eb2backed Yes | 6c | 264$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7286…559ebacked Yes | 5c | 223.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 5c | 210.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…e0fabacked Yes | 6c | 201$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…dbe0backed Yes | 6c | 201$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x619b…7000backed Yes | 5c | 190$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b7…0704backed No | 77c | 186.2$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a1…a4c2backed Yes | 7c | 182.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 6c | 159.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…0fa1backed Yes | 11c | 139.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…e542backed No | 77c | 123.11$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed No | 72c | 113.44$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.