Commodities · resolved market
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb54eb55f93109e7f456610f8f58f3eb7cc40f3898062ea1f8cc54ff29d40fbb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 7,404$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.61 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 4c | 4,410$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.86 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 4,322$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.19 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,566$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…7199backed Yes | 3c | 3,240$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 4c | 2,033$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb587…1f07backed Yes | 4c | 1,925$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f90…9e7bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,827$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…f1c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,821$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,523$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,402$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…0fd0backed Yes | 4c | 1,364$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f0…0894backed Yes | 4c | 1,357$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,329$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x145d…6452backed Yes | 4c | 1,208$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af0…38d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,164$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…410abacked Yes | 4c | 1,120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b2…9398backed Yes | 4c | 998$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a6…9b56backed Yes | 4c | 995$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 979.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 9c | 949.02$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.53 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ed…0ee0backed Yes | 4c | 931$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf48…6f13backed Yes | 3c | 866.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b3…fb78backed Yes | 4c | 692$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 635.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59c7…c51bbacked Yes | 4c | 627$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…5d8fbacked Yes | 2c | 619.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…dbeebacked Yes | 4c | 614$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 4c | 597.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 4c | 587.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…cfc4backed Yes | 4c | 578$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc06f…f952backed Yes | 4c | 565$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6131…3aedbacked Yes | 6c | 557.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ed…6a24backed Yes | 3c | 554$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…11d2backed Yes | 4c | 544$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 2c | 540$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…8dcdbacked Yes | 4c | 518$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 506.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x619b…7000backed Yes | 3c | 504$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5eb2backed Yes | 4c | 492$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…420ebacked Yes | 3c | 470$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 4c | 432.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899a…2aedbacked Yes | 5c | 423$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…dbe0backed Yes | 5c | 406$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…426abacked Yes | 4c | 406$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a9…5958backed Yes | 4c | 404$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 12c | 381.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5e…329dbacked Yes | 4c | 376$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f3…af06backed Yes | 4c | 376$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aaf…d5d0backed Yes | 4c | 372$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 365.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 361.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70a…ec27backed Yes | 4c | 356$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 4c | 341.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…4d9ebacked Yes | 4c | 335$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…82e1backed Yes | 4c | 327.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 4c | 324.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c3…1d43backed Yes | 4c | 321.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Yes | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb34…2065backed Yes | 4c | 282$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…8862backed Yes | 5c | 269$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe132…5e44backed Yes | 5c | 268$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…6963backed Yes | 4c | 262$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0e…b8e1backed Yes | 4c | 250.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35bf…fc0cbacked Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd089…9e8bbacked Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f93…79a9backed Yes | 5c | 240$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…8f66backed Yes | 5c | 230$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…506abacked Yes | 5c | 229$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…9ae9backed Yes | 12c | 203.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 17c | 118.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 12c | 90.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 15c | 83.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd8…d98dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.