Commodities · resolved market
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba03932ff1d4aec87ab8e09aeba07fde43a035c706b141158d64d64abafd900b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $285,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $269,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $285,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 3c | 5,100$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.96 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 4,376$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 5c | 3,755$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.17 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…e462backed Yes | 4c | 3,545$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf029…3d82backed Yes | 4c | 3,074$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…9692backed Yes | 4c | 3,042$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 2,984$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…1223backed Yes | 4c | 2,589$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,503$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 2,483$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3607…9a9cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,411$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c80…6401backed Yes | 4c | 2,379$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 3c | 2,356$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785b…7d17backed Yes | 5c | 2,232$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…ef6abacked Yes | 4c | 2,004$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 3c | 1,648$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10c6…73f0backed Yes | 4c | 1,552$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 1,510$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf79…193ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,464$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f5…60d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,459$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…ddd4backed Yes | 4c | 1,446$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…f036backed Yes | 4c | 1,426$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999c…4904backed Yes | 6c | 1,370$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…b8a6backed Yes | 3c | 1,356$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…c5c5backed Yes | 4c | 1,312$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b26…96d1backed Yes | 6c | 1,310$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…1af1backed Yes | 4c | 1,306$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…d1d9backed Yes | 6c | 1,293$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd581…4fd1backed Yes | 4c | 1,244$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…8df5backed Yes | 4c | 1,198$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c6…1206backed Yes | 4c | 1,197$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…9785backed Yes | 4c | 1,185$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 5c | 1,035$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf48…6f13backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0e…4534backed Yes | 4c | 991$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5756…7d39backed Yes | 4c | 989$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 981$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…dffebacked Yes | 4c | 974$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5915…7e23backed Yes | 4c | 971$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…9bbdbacked Yes | 4c | 964$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2628…2463backed Yes | 4c | 962$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2471…7709backed Yes | 3c | 962$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1eb…352dbacked Yes | 4c | 959$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9319…4407backed Yes | 4c | 957$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…b558backed Yes | 4c | 954$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…5494backed Yes | 4c | 954$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3efa…9027backed Yes | 6c | 897$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…2f00backed Yes | 4c | 880$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1f…0a1cbacked Yes | 4c | 880$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a4…a3dbbacked Yes | 4c | 875$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e3…7dd9backed Yes | 4c | 875$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31f0…dabcbacked Yes | 4c | 850$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 836.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…badfbacked Yes | 4c | 806$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…8730backed Yes | 4c | 802$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 769.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…ebf9backed Yes | 4c | 737$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…9fe7backed Yes | 5c | 730$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8205…7152backed Yes | 4c | 715$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 5c | 713.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd71f…7e60backed Yes | 5c | 708$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…9df1backed Yes | 5c | 707$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…cba3backed Yes | 5c | 707$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…6799backed Yes | 5c | 699.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ab…cf48backed Yes | 5c | 694$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91c…327dbacked Yes | 5c | 694$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…dad8backed Yes | 5c | 687$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 682.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6582…48c6backed Yes | 5c | 678$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…4393backed Yes | 6c | 671$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…8357backed Yes | 6c | 668$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…97a3backed Yes | 4c | 667$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 4c | 666$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5d…da31backed Yes | 5c | 665$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…f681backed Yes | 5c | 664$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f9…263cbacked Yes | 4c | 664$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ec…e177backed Yes | 5c | 661$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7607…b132backed Yes | 5c | 659$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…53eebacked Yes | 5c | 659$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…6aa2backed Yes | 5c | 658$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ea…30d2backed Yes | 5c | 658$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…9eafbacked Yes | 5c | 648$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3485…4699backed Yes | 5c | 648$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…7ea6backed Yes | 6c | 646$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb135…a9c1backed Yes | 4c | 618$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a69…05e5backed Yes | 4c | 617$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 6c | 610.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8f…1560backed Yes | 5c | 608$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 2c | 594$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…c3c0backed Yes | 2c | 584$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…e698backed Yes | 4c | 568$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb864…936dbacked Yes | 4c | 544$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 3c | 539.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 3c | 538.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec51…4741backed Yes | 6c | 525$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 8c | 523.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3220…f613backed Yes | 4c | 514$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4b…88cebacked Yes | 4c | 506.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…e6efbacked Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.