Commodities · resolved market
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb970a2b9e332cbf0aa386c8928b94c3b164bb02c4831053963291dc16cf01dc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 6,528$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 5c | 6,480$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.18 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 3,707$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…9917backed Yes | 2c | 2,940$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 2,254$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,761$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66b…93e5backed Yes | 2c | 1,705$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,531$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…c229backed Yes | 1c | 1,097$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,025$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0988…a4e4backed Yes | 1c | 950$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aff…b470backed Yes | 1c | 950$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd068…35a1backed Yes | 2c | 753$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd560…61cdbacked Yes | 2c | 736$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…8f95backed Yes | 2c | 724$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a95…fee1backed Yes | 2c | 680$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca6…e35bbacked Yes | 2c | 627$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…d0a9backed Yes | 2c | 627$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9022…e9b7backed Yes | 2c | 624$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 21cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209b…5540backed Yes | 2c | 609$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…619cbacked Yes | 2c | 576$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c5…4b16backed Yes | 3c | 565$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 527.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3a…0661backed Yes | 2c | 526$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb99f…f9e4backed Yes | 2c | 522$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…652ebacked Yes | 2c | 522$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa663…b740backed Yes | 2c | 520$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 443.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa483…b15fbacked Yes | 2c | 423$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4933…5209backed Yes | 3c | 379$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 206$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Yes | 9c | 150.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.