Commodities · resolved market
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0dc25ce8888cc89c2639d3b1c4d53aeb81afcbeae79d2450fdd8a6db384223f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $314,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $291,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $314,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 10,522$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.51 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 6c | 6,124$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.58 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 4c | 5,256$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 9c | 5,143$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.15 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 8c | 4,836$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.94 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 10c | 3,627$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.86 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 3,599$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.18 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 10c | 3,512$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.47 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 7c | 2,994$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.13 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 2,479$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.26 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 12c | 2,475$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 2,241$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.27 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked Yes | 7c | 2,066$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf48…6f13backed Yes | 8c | 2,066$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 9c | 2,032$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.1 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2a…ab9fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,018$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf963…340dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,001$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.72 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 3c | 1,998$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 7c | 1,806$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.3 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 1,751$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.31 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,629$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.7 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 9c | 1,580$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.14 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 11c | 1,546$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.71 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 9c | 1,395$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…82e1backed Yes | 9c | 1,381$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 12c | 1,310$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.11 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 10c | 1,305$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,216$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes | 13c | 1,200$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.09 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab63…feecbacked Yes | 7c | 1,100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 9c | 1,097$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9b…7398backed Yes | 9c | 1,058$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6b…7834backed Yes | 2c | 1,035$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 10c | 1,004$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce6…929dbacked Yes | 8c | 985$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…9bb2backed Yes | 2c | 954$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3e…fde0backed Yes | 3c | 951.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…4bafbacked Yes | 6c | 951$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x820c…d282backed Yes | 2c | 947$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…c3e6backed Yes | 2c | 943$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…02c9backed Yes | 9c | 938.75$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…df20backed Yes | 8c | 937$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…34ffbacked Yes | 8c | 937$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…458cbacked Yes | 8c | 933$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb64…0d56backed Yes | 7c | 926$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebf…5bfabacked Yes | 11c | 914.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…0ea5backed Yes | 2c | 914$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 8c | 906.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea5…3393backed Yes | 2c | 904$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ac…9a94backed Yes | 2c | 893$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ab…cf48backed Yes | 2c | 872$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b64…4b55backed Yes | 2c | 872$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3a…33e9backed Yes | 2c | 866$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ef…ce41backed Yes | 2c | 866$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b88…2864backed Yes | 2c | 852$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35f…da6cbacked Yes | 2c | 849$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 5c | 844.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x647d…fcc9backed Yes | 6c | 839$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff8…2e4fbacked Yes | 8c | 832$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403e…0462backed Yes | 8c | 832$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 8c | 827.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1005…5175backed Yes | 2c | 817$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…8d08backed Yes | 2c | 817$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6131…3aedbacked Yes | 9c | 812.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df5…cc5bbacked Yes | 12c | 812.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8914…0f80backed Yes | 3c | 812$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…9541backed Yes | 8c | 797$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…110fbacked Yes | 8c | 796$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked Yes | 3c | 780.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 7c | 767.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 5c | 755$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x868c…ecfbbacked Yes | 8c | 745$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 4c | 730.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa436…fedabacked Yes | 8c | 714$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0791…d81fbacked Yes | 9c | 712.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…39d2backed Yes | 8c | 699$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…cfeebacked Yes | 15c | 681.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b8…e4d3backed Yes | 2c | 681.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d1…0ec1backed Yes | 8c | 678$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 10c | 666$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 9c | 640.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…0281backed Yes | 8c | 635.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e9…7f6bbacked Yes | 7c | 621$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 8c | 600$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…3d9dbacked Yes | 4c | 595$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ef…fcf5backed Yes | 9c | 586.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 7c | 586.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 6c | 584.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…fa2dbacked Yes | 12c | 575.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 7c | 531.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 11c | 476.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cc…e10cbacked Yes | 4c | 453.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 420$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x26f1…d56bbacked Yes | 10c | 418.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c80…f5e8backed Yes | 5c | 417$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 8c | 411.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…6e62backed Yes | 9c | 405.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +140%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.