TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xba63…6271

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
223
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 56 out of 100; worst Tennis at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Golf Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT5824.1%14 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ben Kohles win the 2026 3M Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.14
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.22
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.6
Will Tom Kim finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+785%+$106.44
Will Max Homa win the 2026 ISCO Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.09
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.12
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Cameron Young finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Travelers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.2
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Travelers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.59
Will Tom Hoge win the 2026 Travelers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.38
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+400%+$40
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.29
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.71
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.65
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$7.6
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.9
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.01
Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Truist Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.5
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Truist Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.01
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT4734%16 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.18
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.1
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+46.6%+$38.77
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$12.3
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.48
Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$19.5
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+49.5%+$17.32
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.12
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+98.4%+$68.58
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+150%+$78.98
Will Iran strike Yemen by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$29.25
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.22
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+315.4%+$129.27
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+103.7%+$50.9
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+101.5%+$53.41
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+75%+$157.19
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+1,445.9%+$1,496.5
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+56%+$17.95
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2026, EDT3339.4%13 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+221.5%+$58.36
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+293.4%+$177.15
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+139.8%+$201.83
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$414.14
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.41
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.99
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.01
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.62
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.21
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.39
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.2
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.8
Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+91.8%+$150.89
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.05
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.51
Will the Conservative Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.24
Will the Conservative Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.76
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+167.4%+$18.11
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.29
Will Lutfur Rahman win the 2026 London Borough of Tower Hamlets mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+97.4%+$14.8
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$369Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$368.67
Will Jason Perry win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+297.1%+$69.66
Will Ben Flook win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.53
Will Peter Taylor win the 2026 Watford mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.95
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT2832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.52
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+1,011.1%+$182
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.87
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.6
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+67.5%+$9.27
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$74.93
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.77
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$22.4
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.35
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$22.81
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.36
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.68
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.95
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.66
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+36.9%+$8.92
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.3
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.02
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+162.7%+$141.31
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$162.57
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$49.8
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.47
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick23cpaid+140%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.9
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$94
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.76
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$523Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$523.33
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.42
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+188.5%+$78.4
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.97
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.8
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+2,375.2%+$623.66
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+1,456.1%+$377.13
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$292.69
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
All 18 picks, newest first.
Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+45.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ricardo Quaresma attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+528.9%+$134.56
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$6.6
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.99
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.06
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$9.6
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$43.3
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$17
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$6.6
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$421Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+36.6%+$154.24
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.7
Will the number of US flights delayed on April 10 be between 4,000 and 4,500?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.87
Will the number of US flights delayed on April 10 be less than 4,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Trump out as President by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.37
Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.66
Will less than 8000 US flights be delayed on March 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$34.2
Will less than 5000 US flights be delayed on March 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+829.5%+$1,347.9
Will between 5500-6000 US flights be delayed on March 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.92
Will between 5000-5500 US flights be delayed on March 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.8
Will between 6000-6500 US flights be delayed on March 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.56
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+177.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$43.8
SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+84.5%+$13.36
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LYON qualify for EWC 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.08
Will Cloud9 qualify for EWC 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lyon finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+66%+$114.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye tweet again by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+47.6%+$10.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$10.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.