Music · resolved market
Will Kanye tweet again by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93941e24aac839786475081b78724004b7d868a8335e924b6d1ddc1fd3f1ea2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 20c | 1,952$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 70c | 678$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 30c | 678$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 69c | 499.99$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 76c | 486.57$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49da…0430backed No | 40c | 412.68$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67cd…98b0backed Yes | 66c | 335.22$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 16c | 307.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed No | 49c | 271.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 27c | 199.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb845…a589backed Yes | 49c | 179.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed Yes | 72c | 135.89$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 72c | 134.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 119.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 13c | 114.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 30c | 72.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 27c | 71.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 67.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0b…8ff2backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 27c | 49.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02b…7226backed Yes | 67c | 40.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6f…0e5fbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 33c | 38.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 38c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 68c | 33.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…6e94backed No | 45c | 33.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 34c | 32.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fb…c25cbacked No | 56c | 28.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…7f60backed Yes | 73c | 27.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…51dabacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…51a0backed Yes | 68c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +65%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.