TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x714f…66d5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
606
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Middle East, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 59 out of 100; worst Commodities at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT11928.6%34 W · 85 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 119 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.86
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+421.4%+$417.26
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+475.9%+$393.58
Will Lionel Messi score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.99
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.01
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.29
Will Kylian Mbappe score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.01
Spread: France (-3.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.96
Spread: France (-2.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.6
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.22
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.75
Will the announcers say "Suspension" or "Suspended" during the Norway vs England FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.9
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.18
Will the final be FRA vs NOR at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Erling Haaland score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Erling Haaland score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the announcers say "Cross" 10+ times during the Norway vs England FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Spain vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Spain vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$31.88
Will the final be MAR vs NOR at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.81
Will the announcers say "Goal" 60+ times during the Switzerland vs Colombia FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 119 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT11020.9%23 W · 87 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 110 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will Bola Oyebamiji win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.99
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.36
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.6
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.74
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$366.34
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.8
Will Dan Barker win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Sian Astley win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.9
Will Dan Barker win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.05
Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.55
Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.69
Will Angela Rayner be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.75
Will Wes Streeting be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.29
Will Lisa Nandy be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.2
Will Yvette Cooper be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.75
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.81
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+313.2%+$407.65
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.33
Will Caley McDonald win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.67
Will Robert Mitchell win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.97
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$31.35
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$66
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.89
Showing 25 of 110 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT9739.2%38 W · 59 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+46.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 97 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+203%+$201
Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.31
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.52
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+227.5%+$164
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.9
Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.81
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+292.5%+$132.04
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$92
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.84
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+1,758.1%+$662.31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$422.49
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.87
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.71
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,220
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$232.5
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.59
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$107
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,097Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$352.9
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+245.4%+$214.03
Showing 25 of 97 picks, newest first.
AIlast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT7030%21 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 70 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.57
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+400%+$160
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Moonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.72
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.94
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.52
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.88
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.19
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.75
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+278%+$162.58
Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.73
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+313.8%+$188.28
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+1,576.7%+$394.17
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.3
Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.43
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.04
Grok 4.4 released by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.4
Grok 4.4 released by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.1
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.83
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.97
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.51
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+393.2%+$606
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+732.9%+$585.66
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.76
Showing 25 of 70 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT6225.8%16 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 62 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$305.95
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$500.22
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.86
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.5
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.51
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.05
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$125
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.95
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.38
Will Trump admin declassify foreign election interference files by July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.45
Trump alleges foreign election interference by July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Trump accuse Russia of election interference by July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.22
Will Trump accuse Venezuela of election interference by July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.13
Will Trump accuse Iran of election interference by July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.5
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.16
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.35
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+206.4%+$196.24
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.54
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+313.5%+$560.87
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$156
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+193.3%+$63.89
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$101
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.99
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Putin visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$126
Showing 25 of 62 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT3116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keith Gross be the FL-02 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.62
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$85
Will Van Hilleary be the TN-06 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$222.53
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.31
Will Ethan Corson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.09
Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$222
Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.5
Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.91
Will Elizabeth Lee be the AZ-05 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Chris James be the AZ-05 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.65
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.58
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.5
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.24
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.22
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.82
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.75
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.69
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.13
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.11
Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$118.83
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+317.3%+$97.37
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.75
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.95
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+235.6%+$42.12
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Squid launch a token by October 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Squid launch a token by September 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.4
Will Squid launch a token by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.9
Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.72
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.32
Will Solstice launch a token by September 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.77
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.57
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.45
Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.89
Will Solstice launch a token by March 31 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+151.2%+$48.15
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+407.9%+$372.74
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.47
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.98
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$37.42
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,063Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$1,062.85
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$41.03
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$36
Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$14.5
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$32.5
All 19 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.29
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.41
Will Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.87
Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+217.6%+$250.45
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+269.6%+$378.72
Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.66
Pooh Shiesty charged by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.77
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.92
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+395.8%+$112.57
Will Kanye tweet again by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.59
Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.1
Will Drake officially release Iceman by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+166.3%+$53.08
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.89
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+186.5%+$195.98
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+248.8%+$368.28
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick out as US Rep by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.26
Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+227.5%+$104.2
Peter Attia out by February 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+176.1%+$54.49
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+35%+$77.79
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$31.9
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$37.98
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$26.03
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$83
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.5
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.82
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.35
Powell Bingo: Marchbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$44.12
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+233.3%+$31.5
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+760.2%+$225.19
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+138.1%+$40.6
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$16.4
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$14.34
All 12 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT100%0 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.02
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.99
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.25
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.4
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.71
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,481Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,481.37
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$21
All 10 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+44.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$37
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+127.9%+$30.87
Machado wears a dress or skirt during next Trump meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+177.8%+$25.6
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? (January 18)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$13.71
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+158%+$80.59
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$25.3
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+49.3%+$79.97
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$70
All 9 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+70.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+37.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+123.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+53.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+309.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+309.8%+$388.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+197.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tiger Woods play in the 2026 Masters Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+197.1%+$93.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+193%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+193%+$214.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump attend UFC 327?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.05
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.