Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d68465261466ff75df821881efdb495983f40a02e64d6c310dc91b6c8a39597
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2080…83e2backed Yes | 48c | 7,912$3,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,143.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8475…be5bbacked Yes | 49c | 7,656$3,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,896.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 54c | 3,576$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938.09 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 11c | 1,753$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.81 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 42c | 1,737$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.09 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 67c | 1,062$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.05 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 62c | 1,002$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.11 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 24c | 757$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.54 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 19c | 686.69$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.18 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 48c | 679.39$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.82 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 62c | 661$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.87 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 51c | 577.73$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.01 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 570.56$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.57 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda5b…1510backed Yes | 49c | 560.11$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 49c | 526$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.65 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 516.89$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.64 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 54c | 487.59$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.98 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 39c | 479.88$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.13 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 20c | 434.51$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.61 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 68c | 426$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.02 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 39c | 399.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 50c | 381.77$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.51 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 372$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.9 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…73d1backed Yes | 41c | 356.83$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.22 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 69c | 350$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.12 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 58c | 348.88$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.93 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…6d72backed Yes | 37c | 344.56$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 324.84$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.79 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88cd…d9d2backed Yes | 60c | 319.37$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 23c | 298.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.17 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 22c | 289.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 39c | 247.78$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 11c | 244.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 240.52$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.35 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 233$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 30c | 226.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.13 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 21c | 215.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Yes | 17c | 199.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.92 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 67c | 192.57$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.02 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 177$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 37c | 168.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 161$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…be4dbacked No | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…cc69backed No | 19c | 153.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 147.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 143.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 35c | 136.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 120$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 59c | 118.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 65c | 118$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 58c | 114.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 110.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 42c | 109.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…8a82backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -56%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked Yes | 40c | 86.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 50c | 82.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed No | 58c | 82.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 67c | 79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Yes | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 63c | 73.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 30c | 69.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 43c | 63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 34c | 59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +227.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 37c | 59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 34c | 54.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…bf0ebacked Yes | 78c | 52.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 52.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 59c | 52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 57c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 51c | 46.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 49c | 45.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2056…2dbebacked No | 47c | 44.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 66c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 41c | 38.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 53c | 38.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 36.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…9bc4backed No | 64c | 36.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f81…7ce2backed No | 55c | 35.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1452…449cbacked No | 69c | 29.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe050…18cfbacked Yes | 80c | 25.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…352fbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b9…b193backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…276abacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.36per pick | 55cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6934…0aa7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?this page
- Will Dan Rooney be the Republican nominee for OK-01?No won
- Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01?No won
- Will Kim David be the Republican nominee for OK-01?No won
- Will Nathan Butterfield be the Republican nominee for OK-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.