TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,883
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,883 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2080…83e2backed Yes48c7,912$3,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,143.912100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8475…be5bbacked Yes49c7,656$3,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,896.232100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No54c3,576$1,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,938.0934333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No11c1,753$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.8122833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No42c1,737$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.091216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No67c1,062$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.0518041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No62c1,002$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.1121161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No24c757$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.5421033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No19c686.69$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.183834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No48c679.39$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.828332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed No62c661$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.875642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No51c577.73$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.0110245.1%46 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes79c570.56$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.5731534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda5b…1510backed Yes49c560.11$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No49c526$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6510361.2%63 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No46c516.89$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.6410340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No54c487.59$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.982045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No39c479.88$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.133751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes20c434.51$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.612152.4%11 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+52.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No68c426$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.0219631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No39c399.99$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1562821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-57.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No50c381.77$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.512528%7 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No76c372$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.912545.6%57 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0778…73d1backed Yes41c356.83$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.223030%9 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No69c350$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.122360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed No58c348.88$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.933378.8%26 W · 7 L+7.1wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+34.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xfc8d…6d72backed Yes37c344.56$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.66333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes29c324.84$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.7949511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88cd…d9d2backed Yes60c319.37$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes23c298.64$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.1710722.4%24 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No22c289.01$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.583116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No39c247.78$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1510048%48 W · 52 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No11c244.24$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.61216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No54c240.52$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.356336.5%23 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No53c233$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6312049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes30c226.09$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.1327222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed No21c215.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.725125.5%13 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e7d…ca41backed No67c200$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1341442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.610946.8%51 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed Yes17c199.9$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.924119.5%8 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No67c192.57$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0224831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No66c177$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3910739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes37c168.71$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.716030%18 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No57c161$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3510947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd9c…be4dbacked No45c160$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.721127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf225…cc69backed No19c153.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.661414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-76.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No51c147.16$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.749010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No13c143.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3313143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No35c136.6$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.511735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No63c120$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755850%29 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No59c118.1$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.48535.3%30 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No65c118$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1615232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No58c114.44$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.388234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No50c110.91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1445035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes42c109.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2922948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35a4…7b85backed Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cdb…8a82backed No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick36cpaid-56%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5816544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No55c90.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503540%14 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No67c90$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3839…e2eebacked Yes40c86.64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.641050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No50c82.94$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.36666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed No58c82.28$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No33c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.27035.7%25 W · 45 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No67c79$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.938831.8%28 W · 60 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91e5…0947backed Yes78c75$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No63c73.37$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.229646.9%45 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes30c69.71$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.781414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-61.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed No43c63$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.42339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes34c59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.94475%3 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick26cpaid+227.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes37c59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.171369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.28per pick41cpaid+47.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked No20c55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.855018%9 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No34c54.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5413625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x292b…bf0ebacked Yes78c52.1$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No49c52.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.364126.8%11 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-52.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked No59c52$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.794330.2%13 W · 30 L-7.0wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-51.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcbb0…bd65backed No57c48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.521040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked No51c46.36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.553943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No49c45.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0812643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2056…2dbebacked No47c44.47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No66c42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7215431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No63c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.28132.1%26 W · 55 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes41c38.85$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.79560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No53c38.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3166914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes35c36.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8133421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8b3…9bc4backed No64c36.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.21633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f81…7ce2backed No55c35.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb616…0086backed No62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1452…449cbacked No69c29.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.44825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-56.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe050…18cfbacked Yes80c25.72$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dbb…352fbacked Yes78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.64560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87b9…b193backed Yes79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.327100%7 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb61…276abacked Yes79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3ad…6866backed No65c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3237…5658backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61118.2%2 W · 9 L-4.0wins-0.36per pick55cpaid-75.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.420542%86 W · 119 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.44245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6934…0aa7backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.44136.6%15 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.