TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf225…cc69

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
60
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: World Politics, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 58 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.95
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.41
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.53
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.74
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+479.7%+$165.5
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+146.9%+$59.5
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+85.8%+$9.89
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.54
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+79.2%+$85.13
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$308.76
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.77
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.85
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.06
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.08
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+110.3%+$42.18
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.72
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.19
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.87
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.83
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.68
All 22 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT1414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-76.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.66
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.94
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.55
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+45.5%+$37.32
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.98
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.55
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.01
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.76
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$9
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.18
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.67
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.6
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick40cpaid+55.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.93
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+102.1%+$26.41
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$11.93
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$37
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$23.5
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+31.5%+$12.29
All 7 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Tweets — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Kiwoom Heroesbacked KT Wiz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+34.4%+$4.09
Seattle Mariners vs. Athleticsbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffsbacked magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+48.3%+$6.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+48.2%+$4.9
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.