TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$146,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$148,721

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,478 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c14…0869backed No78c19,673$15,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,310.2310740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes27c17,948$4,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,854.6515150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes21c11,113$2,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,304.8734333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes19c9,551$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.0915445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes21c7,831$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.4721033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac0…55f3backed No79c6,170$4,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.571376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No78c6,106$4,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,366.1114729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes19c5,091$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.3221161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes19c2,999$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.9924433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f1…d87bbacked Yes20c2,885$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.05633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23a7…16b7backed Yes18c2,712$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No76c2,705$2,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.028149.4%40 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…2291backed Yes18c2,687$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1c…1ec7backed Yes18c2,235$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.9830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd19f…64ccbacked Yes19c2,145$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…4393backed Yes17c1,815$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.621127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1fb…90c7backed Yes18c1,576$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No73c1,530$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.9718237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6512…5291backed Yes23c1,400$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3221553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed11…10bebacked Yes17c1,400$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.29812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-73.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c1,397$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.633238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes18c1,283$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.1633421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes18c1,211$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.468535.3%30 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes17c1,000$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.143321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4baf…b22bbacked Yes18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x897a…4194backed Yes19c840$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.245754.4%31 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No70c741.29$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.9110739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No80c741$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.28541.2%35 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked No78c706.2$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.22661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No77c661.64$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.1810340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No71c608.85$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.335133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1206…1362backed Yes25c606.28$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.045444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes30c581.85$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5916544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed Yes18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-53.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x330d…adbdbacked Yes18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-68.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes18c499.98$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68c…eda5backed Yes18c499.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes30c498.36$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6115232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed No75c417$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.11475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc023…5ae8backed Yes17c400.88$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2955…0738backed Yes18c400$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.124136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No80c394.18$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.8424831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No75c392.8$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.0620542%86 W · 119 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64c8…73cebacked Yes16c389.42$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.091968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No71c381.24$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.6810245.1%46 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed Yes20c361.57$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.693116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes25c329.81$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.413066.7%20 W · 10 L+5.9wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes22c325$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.158831.8%28 W · 60 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebd2…87f8backed Yes19c319.11$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6330%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41a3…46b8backed Yes18c313.67$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.46714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-70.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes21c302$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4519631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes19c300$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.512330.9%38 W · 85 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae8…5a42backed No80c300$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05ac…6d71backed No80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601040%4 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick70cpaid-44.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa8b3…9bc4backed Yes25c280.71$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.14633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed No77c279.86$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.775547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes16c278.09$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-53.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes20c275$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5845…f0afbacked Yes18c269.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed No76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.166355.6%35 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6463…eeb9backed Yes19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5874…a9d7backed Yes23c262.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes19c262.19$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.065018%9 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes18c251.82$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3314019.3%27 W · 113 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No70c251.7$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.810947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed No77c244.75$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.3822948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4b…f574backed No78c233.23$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.172751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No76c232.51$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7834129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No70c229.29$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6910946.8%51 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes21c225.63$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.386132.8%20 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes18c222.7$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.971717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad99…dbabbacked Yes18c219.06$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.431717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-54.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9752…8087backed No73c212.71$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.55955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick62cpaid+6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No76c200$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b9…0fbbbacked No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef62…0179backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e80…1df6backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa095…b5adbacked No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…494bbacked Yes21c199.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e0c…a963backed Yes18c199.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-71.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc69b…377ebacked Yes29c192.5$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x138f…e0bbbacked Yes18c182$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes17c180.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.959010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x80e5…2418backed No80c172.55$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c171.67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4649511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No73c168.87$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.412150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x815f…8a76backed No77c168$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.64475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes17c158.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.879819.4%19 W · 79 L-10.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No70c154.15$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.657352.1%38 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No77c151.01$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.036132.8%20 W · 41 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes19c150$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282544%11 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd47…c395backed Yes18c145$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No70c131.17$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.356653%35 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47cd…5648backed Yes19c125.74$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No78c125$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3510048%48 W · 52 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x185d…4cb4backed Yes40c120$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2660%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…997cbacked Yes19c117.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No69c117$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.275244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.