TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc624…ee24

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
416
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: China Taiwan, grading 65 out of 100 (+0.14 per pick).

Best Category China Taiwan at 65 out of 100; worst NBA at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT17247.7%82 W · 90 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 172 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.1%+$213.51
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$28.21
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.5%+$92.67
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,948Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$996.94
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$420
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$811Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$810.96
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$245.96
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$715Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+38.8%+$277.12
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$52.04
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+34.6%+$94.53
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+48.2%+$49.06
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$7,341Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+64.6%+$4,739.27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,277Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$383.98
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+49.8%+$64.72
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$261Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$66.76
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.74
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$14.68
Showing 25 of 172 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT6355.6%35 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 63 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.28
Will James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+69.6%+$101.36
Will Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.57
Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$29.37
Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$16.88
Will Ryan Elijah be the FL-07 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$37.72
Will LaShonda "L.J." Holloway be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$56.41
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+28.4%+$42.3
Will Cory Mills be the FL-07 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.42
Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$759Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$759.46
Will David Burck be the FL-22 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,177Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$304.23
Will Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$16.95
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$735Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$735
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,936Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,936.47
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+76.7%+$143.22
Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$82.75
Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.66
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,763Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+26.4%+$729.42
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$6,789Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+28.4%+$1,927.51
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$694Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$197.78
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$637Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+37.4%+$238.16
Showing 25 of 63 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT6043.3%26 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-28.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 60 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$50.98
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$104
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.1
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,369Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,369.25
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$938Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+58.9%+$552.59
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$19.27
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.31
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,196Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,195.67
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,162Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+27%+$313.27
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$596Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$596.17
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$12.26
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,513Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,512.54
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,544Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+32.1%+$1,136.37
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.6
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$123.13
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$125
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,317Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$1,699.52
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+82.7%+$194.35
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Showing 25 of 60 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ghislaine Maxwell Testify to Congress about Epstein?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$8.64
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$442Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+45.7%+$202.03
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,208Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+50.7%+$612.98
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,596Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$490.1
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+435.3%+$189.81
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.81
Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+37%+$15.89
Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$14.05
Will Ellen Degeneres be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+74.2%+$28.38
Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+50.9%+$9.46
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+40.8%+$11.1
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+130.3%+$146.5
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+112.5%+$22.5
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+40.1%+$12.03
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$3,450Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$3,449.8
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$105.12
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$75
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+77.7%+$270.32
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+37.4%+$44.74
Will Eric Adams attend Zohran Mamdani's swearing-in ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$101
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+36%+$22.03
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.01
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$57.14
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$982Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$982
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+63.3%+$129.14
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+75.4%+$15.09
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,165Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+34.7%+$404.62
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$19.74
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+33.6%+$96.58
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+57.8%+$28.32
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$645Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$644.61
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$190.29
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+80.8%+$48.49
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+163.2%+$42.11
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$105
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$198.1
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$350
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$26.96
All 16 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+204.1%+$433.86
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+194.8%+$27.27
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$368Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$368.5
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$146.79
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.62
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$380.03
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$105.87
Will Russia capture Zarichne by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+132.6%+$53.02
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+92.3%+$276.92
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$90
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$14.38
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$221.52
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$182.02
All 16 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT1566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$475Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+73%+$346.68
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$29.37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$4,542Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+45.1%+$2,049.83
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.1
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+32.7%+$24.04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$35.98
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+88.8%+$89.7
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$20.97
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.25
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$265
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+32.1%+$52.96
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.3
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+27.8%+$12.53
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$493Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$493.25
All 15 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1392.3%12 W · 1 L+5.3wins+0.41per pick52cpaid+106.2%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+464.9%+$162.71
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+49%+$15.19
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+67.9%+$95.11
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$13.9
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+262.1%+$83.87
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+49.1%+$39.25
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$33.79
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+41.3%+$41.27
Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$13.29
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+105.4%+$30.14
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+125.9%+$350
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+191.8%+$95.89
Trump x Xi talk before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.89
All 13 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-73.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+123%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+203%+$37.99
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+42.9%+$123.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+153.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+153.8%+$92.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+48%+$67.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Caranobacked Carano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.