TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$88,063
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,594

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,063 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x680d…afe7backed No29c22,779$6,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,609.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes61c18,724$11,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,361.8515150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa43d…00f4backed No34c3,853$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,296.283246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes49c3,299$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.6234333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed Yes61c3,018$1,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.258042.5%34 W · 46 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2dc…49f9backed Yes72c2,611$1,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.841172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No1c2,354$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.575111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes50c2,260$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.3514356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed No27c2,022$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.495141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No25c1,918$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.963040%12 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes74c1,800$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.735547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes72c1,726$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.327749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed No21c1,553$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.921926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No17c1,553$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.783743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No4c1,418$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.253237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed Yes73c1,307$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.287448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a65…a3debacked Yes68c1,287$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.411758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes64c1,266$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.666141%25 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a0d…fa97backed Yes73c1,097$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.261145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed Yes67c1,018$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.454443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No27c821.89$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.719035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed Yes73c806.53$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.731566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No38c748.96$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.8522833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes43c659.56$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.9212643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf107…b9babacked Yes68c617.81$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.372437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes57c540.44$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2335642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes72c500$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+69%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No26c472.34$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9418237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x740f…a87ebacked Yes72c413.24$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabb9…2b63backed Yes74c387.95$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.872369.6%16 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+53.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes40c358.98$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.396750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes72c356.31$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.6815431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No34c353.72$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9212049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No38c335.7$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5713625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1355547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes72c292.32$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.468757.5%50 W · 37 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes43c284$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.7221033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No17c278.94$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.194940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes66c267$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.869343%40 W · 53 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes66c264.44$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.071861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No18c253.61$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.675139.2%20 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes69c244.85$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5331434.1%107 W · 207 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes72c230$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes59c220$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.610034%34 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No47c215.98$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5116833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No55c210.39$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.556036.7%22 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No5c203$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0210947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes72c199.99$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6639…7a83backed No26c192$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa333…fb88backed Yes64c186.4$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x571c…b9f9backed Yes50c184.05$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.352161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No31c182.72$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.955244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No12c168.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.935135.3%18 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No20c165.69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.865137.3%19 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf453…a674backed Yes70c165.47$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.591154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No10c162.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.753836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-15.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No9c159.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7514729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No40c157.77$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1613546.7%63 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.515445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes28c150$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1088535.3%30 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No18c147.3$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.844841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No8c143.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.994847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No60c141$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.842634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No32c140.85$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2110340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf44…74d8backed Yes64c133.01$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.011154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9bf…e5d8backed Yes69c133$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No57c124$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.652157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+86.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes60c119$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.69326.9%25 W · 68 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No47c115.69$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.769647.9%46 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeed8…35f0backed No31c115.48$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.863046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No39c110$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes39c109.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.094030%12 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No17c109.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.74940.8%20 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4022848.7%111 W · 117 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc83…37efbacked Yes72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6669…42b5backed No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No63c99.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638550.6%43 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No26c96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.963644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No17c91.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.615244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No20c91.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.864032.5%13 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc948…e6cdbacked Yes72c86.8$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No22c85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7512545.6%57 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No32c85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.510946.8%51 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed Yes63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.376355.6%35 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes46c73.93$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2633421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b25…e4bebacked No30c71.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.271457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+47.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc09b…38e2backed Yes38c70$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4b…f574backed No28c69.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.512751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes48c69$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.887338.4%28 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9e4…d097backed Yes74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.571283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes65c66.96$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3433238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x378a…a638backed Yes68c66.63$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.63933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-27.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No26c65.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.083452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+43.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c4a…db2bbacked Yes52c61.98$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.953100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x995f…3ebabacked No41c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e9…b434backed Yes74c52.5$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.57862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No26c51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.269819.4%19 W · 79 L-10.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No51c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.354850%24 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.