Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x303658c00317867d8206adeed79933fa70ed41854f6ec30de104c8c6babfcf2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x680d…afe7backed No | 29c | 22,779$6,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,609.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 61c | 18,724$11,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,361.85 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…00f4backed No | 34c | 3,853$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.28 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 49c | 3,299$1,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,668.62 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 61c | 3,018$1,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.25 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…49f9backed Yes | 72c | 2,611$1,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.84 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 1c | 2,354$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 50c | 2,260$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.35 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 27c | 2,022$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.49 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 25c | 1,918$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.96 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 74c | 1,800$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.73 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 72c | 1,726$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.32 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 21c | 1,553$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.92 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 17c | 1,553$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.78 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 4c | 1,418$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 73c | 1,307$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.28 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…a3debacked Yes | 68c | 1,287$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.41 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 64c | 1,266$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.66 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…fa97backed Yes | 73c | 1,097$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed Yes | 67c | 1,018$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.45 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 821.89$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.71 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 73c | 806.53$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.73 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 38c | 748.96$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.85 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 43c | 659.56$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.92 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked Yes | 68c | 617.81$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.37 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 57c | 540.44$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 72c | 500$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 472.34$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.94 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740f…a87ebacked Yes | 72c | 413.24$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb9…2b63backed Yes | 74c | 387.95$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.87 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 40c | 358.98$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.39 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 72c | 356.31$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 34c | 353.72$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.92 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 38c | 335.7$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.57 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 72c | 292.32$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.46 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 43c | 284$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.72 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 17c | 278.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 66c | 267$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 66c | 264.44$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.07 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 18c | 253.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 244.85$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 72c | 230$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 59c | 220$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 215.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 55c | 210.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 5c | 203$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7a83backed No | 26c | 192$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa333…fb88backed Yes | 64c | 186.4$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed Yes | 50c | 184.05$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.35 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 31c | 182.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 12c | 168.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 20c | 165.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…a674backed Yes | 70c | 165.47$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 10c | 162.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 9c | 159.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 157.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 18c | 147.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 8c | 143.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 60c | 141$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 140.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf44…74d8backed Yes | 64c | 133.01$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…e5d8backed Yes | 69c | 133$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 57c | 124$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 60c | 119$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 115.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 31c | 115.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 39c | 110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 39c | 109.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 17c | 109.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…37efbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6669…42b5backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 26c | 96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 17c | 91.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 20c | 91.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…e6cdbacked Yes | 72c | 86.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 22c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 32c | 85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 73.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 30c | 71.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed Yes | 38c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…f574backed No | 28c | 69.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 48c | 69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e4…d097backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 66.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 68c | 66.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 26c | 65.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…db2bbacked Yes | 52c | 61.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x995f…3ebabacked No | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…b434backed Yes | 74c | 52.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 26c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?this page
- Will Kevin Christensen be the WY-AL Republican nominee?No won
- Will Reid Rasner be the WY-AL Republican nominee?No won
- Will Richard Dodson be the WY-AL Republican nominee?No won
- Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.