TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,634
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,025

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,634 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x011f…1122backed Yes2c15,775$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.375111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x680d…afe7backed Yes32c11,201$3,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,624.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed No66c9,460$6,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,240.728042.5%34 W · 46 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes43c2,888$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.1115150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c2,650$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.95260%0 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes29c2,456$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.3634333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed Yes31c1,293$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.135141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No76c1,234$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.4414356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No73c1,200$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32331534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No69c1,037$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.0618026.1%47 W · 133 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes36c1,006$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.7622833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a0d…fa97backed Yes34c873.14$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.731145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No75c821.63$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.439035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a7c…42bfbacked No47c800.15$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa43d…00f4backed Yes34c777$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.183246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf107…b9babacked No65c608.86$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.192437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes34c483$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.197437.8%28 W · 46 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3080…337bbacked Yes38c480.62$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.25030%15 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No77c472.35$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.9918237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes39c445$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4715431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes14c425.64$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1413625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes34c400$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13619631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed No65c384.67$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb477…673ebacked Yes56c361.61$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.53773%27 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No52c359$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.326750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes18c356.51$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.624126.8%11 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-52.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No67c344.9$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.6713647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No69c334.9$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.169147.3%43 W · 48 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No44c321.51$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.043040%12 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes42c311.96$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.512643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No71c309.67$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.64143.9%18 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1293928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes53c289.87$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6315445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No77c270.25$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1624831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae34…3a8abacked No73c266$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.823100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes39c201.59$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.879647.9%46 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes34c181$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.547326%19 W · 54 L-10.6wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No67c176.09$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.969343%40 W · 53 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes56c150$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe9e…6944backed Yes35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No44c141.75$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.014940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6669…42b5backed Yes40c140$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes28c133.56$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.844156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No60c127.05$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.435244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes25c122.28$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.995642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No62c120.33$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9810340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No66c120$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6296.9%2 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-80.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No63c114.83$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.444452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes54c113.74$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2633238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x995f…3ebabacked Yes24c112.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes37c106$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4621033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x065d…a672backed Yes27c102.05$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0890%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc18d…fac7backed No79c101.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.272100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No50c100.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.745035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.773438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+144%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f71…719abacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x274e…648cbacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294953.1%26 W · 23 L+10.8wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+87.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x321e…9292backed No47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+43.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda00…61b4backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ce3…f779backed Yes51c99.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No76c97.58$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.335244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes33c95$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.354531.1%14 W · 31 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-44.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcf44…74d8backed Yes53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes35c92.28$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.310034%34 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x738a…5996backed No49c90.69$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.691656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11b5…8c02backed No42c89.98$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.49650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes39c88.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.511145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c37…a324backed No51c87$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.633100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No53c86.28$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.894841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes23c85.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.733452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+43.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No72c84.64$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.724949%24 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No72c84.57$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.549326.9%25 W · 68 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No45c83.33$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.832157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+86.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd832…67e0backed Yes27c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No66c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.67451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No62c77.38$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.45547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes21c74.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4549511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No68c74$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.384833.3%16 W · 32 L-7.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-41.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No68c73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.117140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f4b…f574backed Yes31c70.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.672751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No48c70$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.412330.9%38 W · 85 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No69c70$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.93531.4%11 W · 24 L-6.7wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-51.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf453…a674backed Yes30c67.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0640…5ea2backed Yes49c67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.831225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-44.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x270b…e632backed Yes53c65.05$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.481957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No39c64.39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.364942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bd9…9591backed Yes48c64.14$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf124…9d72backed No77c61.26$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.092100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes43c60.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.892634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x571c…b9f9backed No55c58.21$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.052161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2564…f258backed No52c57.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.63850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6dc…2646backed Yes53c57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6639…7a83backed Yes35c57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf8b…0c74backed Yes53c56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.68580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b25…e4bebacked No72c52.48$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.731457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+47.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x67a8…7493backed Yes34c51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.34757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccad…46ecbacked Yes24c50.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9580%0 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.522948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.384850%24 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.