Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc145a4fabea9c2db89d6c1f3be93fe1859083089c784e2b4587b0eb2bb364747
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 2c | 15,775$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.37 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x680d…afe7backed Yes | 32c | 11,201$3,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,624.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 66c | 9,460$6,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,240.72 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 43c | 2,888$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.11 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,650$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 29c | 2,456$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.36 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 31c | 1,293$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.13 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 76c | 1,234$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.44 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 1,200$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 69c | 1,037$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.06 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 36c | 1,006$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.76 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…fa97backed Yes | 34c | 873.14$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 821.63$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.43 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7c…42bfbacked No | 47c | 800.15$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…00f4backed Yes | 34c | 777$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.18 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked No | 65c | 608.86$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.19 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 34c | 483$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.19 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked Yes | 38c | 480.62$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.2 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 472.35$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 39c | 445$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.47 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 14c | 425.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed No | 65c | 384.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 56c | 361.61$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 52c | 359$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.32 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 356.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 344.9$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.67 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 334.9$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 44c | 321.51$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.04 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 42c | 311.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 71c | 309.67$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.6 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 53c | 289.87$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.63 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 270.25$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae34…3a8abacked No | 73c | 266$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 201.59$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 34c | 181$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 176.09$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 44c | 141.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6669…42b5backed Yes | 40c | 140$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 28c | 133.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 127.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 25c | 122.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 120.33$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 114.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 54c | 113.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x995f…3ebabacked Yes | 24c | 112.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 37c | 106$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed Yes | 27c | 102.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc18d…fac7backed No | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 100.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +144%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed Yes | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 97.58$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 33c | 95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf44…74d8backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 35c | 92.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 49c | 90.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 42c | 89.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 39c | 88.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…a324backed No | 51c | 87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 53c | 86.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 23c | 85.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 84.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 72c | 84.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 45c | 83.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 62c | 77.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 74.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 68c | 74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…f574backed Yes | 31c | 70.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…a674backed Yes | 30c | 67.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…5ea2backed Yes | 49c | 67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 53c | 65.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 39c | 64.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd9…9591backed Yes | 48c | 64.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf124…9d72backed No | 77c | 61.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 43c | 60.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 55c | 58.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…f258backed No | 52c | 57.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…2646backed Yes | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7a83backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…0c74backed Yes | 53c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 72c | 52.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed Yes | 34c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked Yes | 24c | 50.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?this page
- Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?Yes won
- Will Kevin Christensen be the WY-AL Republican nominee?No won
- Will Reid Rasner be the WY-AL Republican nominee?No won
- Will Richard Dodson be the WY-AL Republican nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.