TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x738a…5996

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
237
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Middle East, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 62 out of 100; worst AI at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT9454.3%51 W · 43 L+12.6wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+52.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
Middle East — the 94 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+237%+$156
Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+248.8%+$207.48
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+68.4%+$82.76
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+143%+$446.1
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+30%+$16.76
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+150.4%+$84.1
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+55.4%+$149.01
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.3
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$18.73
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.65
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.46
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.2
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+54.2%+$80.24
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.07
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.2
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$119.64
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$39.6
Showing 25 of 94 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT2737%10 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.2
Will British or Norwegian Airways swap logos on Instagram?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+50.2%+$14.74
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+100%+$15
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$81.78
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$181.6
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.39
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$29.32
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Brazil finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Spread: France (-3.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)backed Ecuador · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$10.34
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$20.67
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$16.67
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will England win on 2026-06-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$24.86
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT2665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Commodities — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$41.4
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+101.3%+$52.83
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$377.6
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.1
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.11
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.06
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.6
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+87.5%+$26.09
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.55
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$27.84
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+395.5%+$45.97
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+176.8%+$38.49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$36.75
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$17.11
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$24.67
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.9
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+64.9%+$31.17
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+46.9%+$33.6
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$6.76
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+74.2%+$35.79
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$7.08
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+63.3%+$19.92
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT1656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$81.23
Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+106.1%+$46.69
Will Nic Zateslo be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+43.3%+$14.28
Will Eliott Rodriguez be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+78.8%+$53.56
Will Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$109.49
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+154.8%+$138.38
Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$47.53
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Kent County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+107.5%+$104.74
Will John Fleming drop out?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$25.55
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
All 16 picks, newest first.
AIlast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+25%+$15.5
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.6
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.98
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
X Money released by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.1
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.2
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+492.5%+$128.04
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.6
Will Sam Altman testify against Musk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+48.5%+$7.08
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.18
Claude 4.7 released by April 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Botond Fülöp be the next President of Hungary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+37%+$25.89
Will Bola Oyebamiji win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+100%+$30
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.52
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.9
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.64
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$38
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$30
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$9.6
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.12
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+33.9%+$33.8
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+83.5%+$18.2
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.84
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+73.8%+$23.35
Ukraine strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.5
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$484Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$484.1
Moscow air traffic suspended by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$32.5
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+50.7%+$94.45
Will Putin visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.84
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.27
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+111%+$37.4
All 10 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+335.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earningslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-57.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Ian Machado Garry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$33.39
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+127.1%+$227.36
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.44
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+89.8%+$34.11
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jeff Bezos Announced as New Liverpool Owner in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$70.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern Munich Win the Treble?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+50.2%+$9.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bilibili Gaming Golden Road in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd not IPO before June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2last resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will There be 4-6 Knife Kills at CS2 EWC 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.