Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Bob Sullivan be the Oklahoma Commissioner of Insurance Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa54cf4b2ed09d3139a8191d87569c07eda9281c494bf1ff598d27cac6a486a71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 75c | 567.87$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.66 | 158 | 56.3%89 W · 69 L | +20.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 60c | 411$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.4 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.64 | 214 | 31.3%67 W · 147 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…9a76backed Yes | 58c | 291$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 40c | 248.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 378 | 22.2%84 W · 294 L | -28.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…a1debacked Yes | 60c | 226.01$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 29c | 223.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 9c | 219$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 368 | 34.2%126 W · 242 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed Yes | 63c | 180.95$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 46c | 180.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 35c | 144.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked Yes | 79c | 129$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 35c | 122.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 354 | 34.7%123 W · 231 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 37c | 94.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 184 | 29.9%55 W · 129 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 63c | 93.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -91%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…a674backed Yes | 65c | 87.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 490 | 36.7%180 W · 310 L | -35.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 21c | 72.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…99a5backed No | 40c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 255 | 36.5%93 W · 162 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…735fbacked No | 56c | 54.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…2963backed No | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…a875backed Yes | 59c | 28.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbac…6b32backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be5…a53bbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…6ae9backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 736 | 15.1%111 W · 625 L | -113.3wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bob Sullivan be the Oklahoma Commissioner of Insurance Republican nominee?this page
- Will Marty Quinn be the Oklahoma Commissioner of Insurance Republican nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.