TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2106…4dea

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
414
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Earnings, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Earnings at 57 out of 100; worst Chess at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT18843.6%82 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 188 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+41.2%+$43.79
Will Donald Trump be shown 0-2 times at the World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$148
Will Donald Trump be shown 3-5 times at the World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+87.9%+$105.35
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,046Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,046.16
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,653Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+78%+$1,288.82
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,432Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+48.1%+$688.85
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$33,971Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$33,970.84
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$24,322Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+87.5%+$21,292.6
Will Dai Dai be the first song performed by Shakira at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.79
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$420
Will the World Cup Final national anthem last between 130 and 140 seconds?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
Will England win on 2026-07-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$750
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+100%+$500
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,360Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,359.91
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$971Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+54.4%+$528.74
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,340Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+49.5%+$1,159.22
Will the final be FRA vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+56%+$51.32
Will the final be FRA vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+34.1%+$75.62
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,810Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,809.99
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,315Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+72.8%+$1,685
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,800Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$1,200
Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$598Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$598
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$7,625Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+136.1%+$10,374.51
Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and NOR vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$853Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+34.6%+$294.95
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,475Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,474.9
Showing 25 of 188 picks, newest first.
Earningslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT9761.9%60 W · 37 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Earnings — the 97 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.32
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.2
Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.17
Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.96
Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.57
Will MarketAxess (MKTX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Akamai Techs (AKAM) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+25%+$10.2
Will Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+101.3%+$151
Will Fox (FOXA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.1
Will Frontdoor (FTDR) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.21
Will Celsius Holdings (CELH) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$14.79
Will Amplitude (AMPL) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.7
Will Allstate (ALL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.43
Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will IonQ (IONQ) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.27
Will Uber Technologies (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.43
Will StoneX Group (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+75.4%+$8.6
Will Forge Global Holdings (FRGE) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+203%+$33.5
Will DeFi Technologies (DEFT) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$55.06
Will Applied Materials (AMAT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$39.37
Will Playboy (PLBY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$13.4
Will iHeartMedia (IHRT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+69.5%+$8.2
Will Paramount Group (PSKY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+85.2%+$13.8
Will Oklo (OKLO) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$159.38
Showing 25 of 97 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT4431.8%14 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.01
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$313.5
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.52
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.52
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+188.6%+$423.77
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$181
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$25.2
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+77.1%+$74
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.2
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.5
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.36
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$107.99
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$166
Will Giuseppe Tortora win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.8
Will Anna De Gaio win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.8
Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+73.7%+$81.04
Will Eligia Santucci win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.16
Will Sandro Parcaroli win the 2026 Macerata mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+471.4%+$66
Will Mario Almici win the 2026 Legnano mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$8.04
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+342.1%+$55.76
Will Luigi Del Prete win the 2026 Frattamaggiore mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.44
Will Salvatore Alfano win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.7
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$292
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+55.2%+$142.91
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$460
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+200%+$3,999.97
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$640
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$820Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$1,179.98
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$467Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$467.4
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$5,601Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,600.88
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$4,685Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,685.19
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$2,048Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,048.18
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,640Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+204.9%+$3,359.99
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,270Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,270
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.13
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+166.7%+$125
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$502Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$501.8
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-73.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.61
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.97
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$4,170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,170.13
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$887Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$887
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$169.16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$428Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$427.85
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$2,199Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$2,198.99
Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bps cut" favored on December 9?backed No Change · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$85.78
Will two people dissent the September Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+34.2%+$51
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+59.9%+$171.28
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-24.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$2,031Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,031.4
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$118.9
Will Grok win the okbet trading competition?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+26.6%+$6.3
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$556Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+261.5%+$1,455
Will Taylor Swift rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$209.53
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$283.99
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,009Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,009.11
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$373Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+168.1%+$627
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$496Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$496
All 10 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+125.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangersbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$436Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$120.7
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royalsbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$591Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$410.41
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padresbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$561Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$440.44
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,031Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+94.2%+$970.94
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,530Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,530.4
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$380.38
All 6 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+164.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPOlast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$35.5
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$103.86
All 2 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Mls — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will New York City FC vs. Toronto FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.04
Will New York City FC win on 2026-07-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$59
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$24
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$225.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chesslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Chess — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wesley So Win the Sinquefield Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$162
Will Javokhir Sindarov Win the Sinquefield Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$225.24
All 2 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mariano vs Jungleman: Higher winnings at Hustler Casino on Friday?backed Jungleman · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+119.8%+$43.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.