IPO · resolved market
Will Lyntris' market cap be between $2.5B and $3B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73dd0550d8b76ee48531ac6a96636e4deef152a98bb50b0f6d9de81903cf6de1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 69c | 1,154$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 27c | 296$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 27c | 190.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 186.02$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…7f3bbacked Yes | 25c | 161.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 24c | 123.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d4…da9ebacked Yes | 40c | 120.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 21c | 111.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…bdeebacked No | 72c | 56.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 70c | 48.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed Yes | 32c | 43.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 44c | 40.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa191…bc15backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 76c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 27.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 79c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 14.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 13.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lyntris' market cap be between $2.5B and $3B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Lyntris' market cap be at least $4B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Lyntris' market cap be between $2B and $2.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Lyntris' market cap be between $3.5B and $4B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Lyntris' market cap be between $3B and $3.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Lyntris' market cap be less than $2B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.