TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,909,226
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,732,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,909,226 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,848 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37ef…a37abacked No0c3,102,614$7,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,050.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-70.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b3…653cbacked No0c1,728,426$3,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,756.85333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-57.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a21…fb6cbacked No1c955,887$8,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,661.48100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x101f…f79abacked No0c700,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed No0c317,507$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.52130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b1c…03c2backed No0c307,115$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bd…1fecbacked No0c284,000$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked No0c278,642$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.641526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick17cpaid-36.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa450…452fbacked No0c250,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No0c246,661$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.44303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-95.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c90…79f4backed No0c230,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf74…b16cbacked No0c200,667$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-85.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf8…fb62backed No2c190,830$3,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,837.31811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-71.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82c2…4b27backed No1c179,357$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a24…cf2bbacked No0c168,013$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f1e…ccb0backed No1c162,068$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.7860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe04a…094fbacked No0c160,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf920…665fbacked No0c150,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ef…c75bbacked No2c147,830$3,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,206922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick8cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7149…81d1backed No0c143,690$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b9…0024backed No1c142,626$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.7880%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked No2c141,696$3,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,005.61160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6100…0b49backed No0c138,580$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.1690%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x28d2…38aebacked No1c131,987$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed No6c131,005$7,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,4524415.9%7 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3371…4f89backed No0c118,990$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.9850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No1c113,077$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.764511.1%5 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdba8…b0cbbacked No0c112,980$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.9690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b4a…24bebacked No0c111,305$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No0c110,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…7d2abacked No0c109,450$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…9d93backed No1c109,092$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.4690%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5392…d2ecbacked No0c107,000$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc822…a169backed No0c102,500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47f8…8e3cbacked No0c101,338$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c4b…abd8backed No0c100,500$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b1…83a0backed No0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…5b80backed No0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc828…dbfabacked No0c100,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b97…3f54backed No0c95,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbf…9afabacked No0c92,790$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.5890%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1daa…df94backed No0c91,910$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No1c91,626$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.15540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-43.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bd5…f114backed No1c91,036$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.82130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed No1c88,040$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.7180%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6103…f2d9backed No1c85,837$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae8…b90abacked No1c85,733$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.6630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48df…eb90backed No2c84,096$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1be…9662backed No0c80,595$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…ce0cbacked No0c80,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x828d…c9a5backed No0c77,978$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00a8…f385backed No0c77,721$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d4…4fbebacked No0c75,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef56…3f07backed No15c72,623$10,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,959.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe782…c17cbacked No0c69,655$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7440…0a44backed No0c69,418$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7847…4007backed No1c67,053$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fdd…2fb9backed No0c66,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfafa…a39fbacked No0c66,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked No0c66,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No5c65,445$3,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,219.261833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed No2c65,217$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.93119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-76.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff6d…2d0cbacked No1c65,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf285…e8eabacked No1c63,667$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe526…a19dbacked No0c63,562$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0b2…962dbacked No0c62,915$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6c0…22c1backed No1c62,054$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac6…5a16backed No0c61,667$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…8cd8backed No0c61,212$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea5…b5e6backed No1c60,333$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce78…bfadbacked No1c59,524$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0539…5bdcbacked No0c59,410$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.3270%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No2c57,700$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.04392.6%1 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-93.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9155…46f0backed No0c57,500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No2c57,149$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.212941.1%53 W · 76 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8735…46e5backed No12c55,843$6,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,728.41137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3862…782fbacked No1c55,295$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed No4c53,877$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928.11119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef0…156fbacked No4c53,847$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x487a…5d25backed No0c53,783$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc18b…9491backed No0c53,598$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49a…69debacked No4c53,461$1,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,891.4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d51…b0cebacked No0c53,000$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked No0c52,470$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.94160%0 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x40dd…e214backed No0c52,160$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.32140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b9…822abacked No0c51,385$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bf…99ebbacked No1c50,997$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.051915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-72%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1faf…3b02backed No1c50,571$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765d…f447backed No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a36…bd8ebacked No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ae…6ebfbacked No0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b2c…f03fbacked No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a1…c5a9backed No0c50,000$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd10c…0645backed No1c49,433$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x429a…c211backed No0c49,108$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1d2…64d0backed No0c48,793$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed No0c46,464$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01b0…5aaabacked No0c44,778$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.0970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed No1c44,131$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.46140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4658…425bbacked No0c42,500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.